GA/NC/VA and 2020/2024

[SingingAnalyst]

I suspect NC will again be about midway between VA and GA in 2020. Of course, a lot could change that: the presence of a Virginian or North Carolinan or Georgian on the Presidential ticket; a contentious state race or issue on the ballot (such as the 2000 school voucher proposal in MI which energized Democrats to vote mostly against it); or perhaps other factors.

I suppose these factors were present in varying degrees in the years you mentioned, also.

[SingingAnalyst]

I think 2016 had a lot hold the Democratic vote back. You had Matthew that hit and cause a lot of damage in the eastern democratic areas. Plus you had the NC GOP cutting the early voting locations which cut into the Democratic vote. I think in 2020 NC will trend D.

Me too. I think NC will trend strongly D in 2020.

We also had violence surrounding anti-police brutality protests in Charlotte, which probably helped energize the Trump vote in NC in 2016.