SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,637
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« on: August 07, 2017, 06:26:07 PM » |
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Very interesting question! I would rank them as (1) 2016; (2) 1968; (3) 2004-- though I also think a good case could be made for reversing the order of the top two.
I looked mainly at data visible on this site:
(1) County percentages:
In 1968, Nixon only received 80.04% or more in 5 counties: his top county was Hooker NE 87.94% and his 5th best Sioux IA 80.04%-- and Nixon's top 5 county percentages came from 5 different states (4 in the Midwest Plains and 1 in Appalachia).
In 1968, Humphrey received 75.62% or more in 5 counties: his top county was Duval TX 88.74% and his 5th best Suffolk MA 75.62%. 3 of Humphrey's 5 best counties were in TX.
In 1968, Wallace received over 90% in two counties: Geneva AL and George MS. Neither Nixon nor Humphrey reached 90% in any county.
Looking beyond the county percentages, however, Black precincts went overwhelmingly for Humphrey, though few if any matched county delineations.
In 2016, Trump received 91.62% or more in 5 counties (4 in TX) and Clinton received 86.80% or more in 5 counties (in 5 different "states"). Johnson's highest percentage was 13.89% in Los Alamos NM and Stein's top was Sioux ND 10.39%, so clearly Johnson's and Stein's percentages do not show a clear geographic pattern as did Wallace's in 1968.
Based on county percentages, I call 2016 and 1968 a tie.
2. County totals:
In 1968, Nixon's top 5 counties gave him 3,178,000 votes (10% of Nixon's total) and Humphrey's top 5 gave him 4,073,000 votes (13% of Humphrey's total)-- indicating a pro-Humphrey bias among the largest counties. Wallace's top 5 counties only gave him 636,000 (6.4% of Wallace's total)-- an indication his strength lied elsewhere.
In 2016, Clinton's top 5 counties gave her 6,237,000 votes, or nearly 10% of her total-- while Trump's 5 largest counties gave him just 3,048,000-- or less than 5% of his total. This shows a very strong pro-Clinton bias among the largest counties.
Based on county totals, I call 2016 more divisive.
Overall, I would rank 2016 slightly more divisive than 1968. Much of 1968's division lied outside the partisan political sphere: 1968 anti-Humphrey protesters at the DNC; the belief of many on the left that no candidate was really worth voting for (a sentiment that, while present in 2016, was much weaker).
2004 I would rank 3rd. Unlike 1968 and 2016, it is harder to find subgroups of the population of which it can be said, "almost every [X] voted for ..."
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