When did young voters begin to favor the Democrats? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 27, 2024, 03:42:55 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 100% pro-life no matter what)
  When did young voters begin to favor the Democrats? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: When did young voters begin to favor the Democrats?  (Read 3196 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,637
United States


« on: May 28, 2017, 05:37:30 PM »

According to Gallup, young voters have always been more Democratic.

In 1936, FDR won 68% of voters under 30 and 56% of voters 50+.

In 1948, Truman + Thurmond + Wallace won 62% under 30 and 50% over 50.

In 1952, Stevenson won 51% under 30 and 39% over 50.

In 1972, McGovern won 48% under 30 and 36% over 50.

In 1980, Reagan won 41% under 30 and 54% over 50.

In all of the above years, the gap was at least 12 points. In other years, the gap was smaller, but younger voters generally voted more Dem than older ones.

I think 2008 set the record for difference between 18-29 and 50+, but 2016 may be a close second, especially if we lump Clinton+Johnson+Stein analogous to what Gallup did for 1948.

As a side note: in 1972, when George C. Wallace was a candidate, his support was approximately the same for those 21-29, 30-49, and 50+ -- but dropped way down for 18-20 year olds.
Logged
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,637
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2017, 05:54:08 PM »

According to Gallup, young voters have always been more Democratic.

In 1936, FDR won 68% of voters under 30 and 56% of voters 50+.

In 1948, Truman + Thurmond + Wallace won 62% under 30 and 50% over 50.

In 1952, Stevenson won 51% under 30 and 39% over 50.

In 1972, McGovern won 48% under 30 and 36% over 50.

In 1980, Reagan won 41% under 30 and 54% over 50.

In all of the above years, the gap was at least 12 points. In other years, the gap was smaller, but younger voters generally voted more Dem than older ones.

I think 2008 set the record for difference between 18-29 and 50+, but 2016 may be a close second, especially if we lump Clinton+Johnson+Stein analogous to what Gallup did for 1948.

As a side note: in 1972, when George C. Wallace was a candidate, his support was approximately the same for those 21-29, 30-49, and 50+ -- but dropped way down for 18-20 year olds.

Reagan won them in 1984, carrying around 60%, and Bush I carried them by around 6 points. Further, Carter carried young voters by a very tiny margin - something like a couple points or so. To be honest, I'm a bit skeptical about relying on those age polls from the 30s - 50s.

I really don't think the idea that today's youth are behaving just the same as before would be correct. Not at all.
True. The age gap is wider than it used to be.
Logged
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,637
United States


« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2017, 02:41:07 PM »

Historically, for the most part (since the 1930s) younger voters have been more Democratic, but not to the extent that they were in 2008 (which is a bit of an outlier). There are exceptions, such as 1956, 1964, and 1976, where the difference among age groups was small (but with young voters still slightly more Democratic). During certain eras, such as 1984-1992, young voters were actually slightly more Republican (or at least less Democratic) than the national average. In the 1990 House and Senate races, young voters were more Republican, with the notable exception of the NC Senate race between Jesse Helms (R) and Harvey Gantt (D).
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 12 queries.