Educational attainment vs. Trump percentage of PV by state (user search)
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  Educational attainment vs. Trump percentage of PV by state (search mode)
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Author Topic: Educational attainment vs. Trump percentage of PV by state  (Read 1130 times)
SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« on: December 23, 2016, 12:47:51 PM »

Based on 52 data pairs (the 50 states plus DC plus the US as a whole), giving each equal weight, the correlation between the percentage of population 25+ with a bachelor's degree and percentage of vote that went to Trump is -0.83, which is very strong.

69% of the variability in Trump's percentage is explainable by the percentage of the population with a bachelor's degree.

Has any other election features such a strong relationship between educational attainment and support for one candidate?
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2016, 01:12:09 PM »
« Edited: December 24, 2016, 01:15:11 PM by mathstatman »

Based on 52 data pairs (the 50 states plus DC plus the US as a whole), giving each equal weight, the correlation between the percentage of population 25+ with a bachelor's degree and percentage of vote that went to Trump is -0.83, which is very strong.

69% of the variability in Trump's percentage is explainable by the percentage of the population with a bachelor's degree.

Has any other election features such a strong relationship between educational attainment and support for one candidate?

Source? I'd be interested.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_educational_attainment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2016#Results_by_state

I copied the first table into Excel after sorting by Bachelor's Degree attainment, treating each of the 50 states plus DC plus the US as a whole as 52 equally weighted entities, used vlookup to paste the Trump percentage, and ran a simple linear regression (Trump percentage vs. Bachelor's degree attainment percentage).  Took all of 2 minutes.

What I find remarkable is the sheer consistency of the pattern. WV, the least educated state as measured by percentage of Bachelor degree holders, was within a fraction of a percent (behind WY) as Trump's best state. Of course DC is the most educated and Trump's worst area. I suspect a similar pattern of Trump support vs. Post grad degree holders, but not high school graduates (ironically, WY, Trump's best state, also has the highest percentage of HS grads--91.8%).
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SingingAnalyst
mathstatman
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Posts: 3,637
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2016, 01:54:01 PM »

As a follow-up, the correlation between Trump % and postgrad % is -0.835, and the correlation between Trump % and HS grad % is -0.154 (not statistically significant).
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