How high a percentage of the white vote does everyone think Donald Trump will win on November 8 when he faces off against Hillary Clinton? Does anyone think he will exceed that won by Mitt Romney in 2012?
This is actually the wrong question. The big question being asked by Donald Trump and his supporters is whether or not he can capture 25% of the AA vote; if he can't, we may well have to get used to the phrase "Madam President", but if he can, he'll be sitting in the Oval Office come 2017.
That question has been answered, the answer is no. There is literally nothing to back up this notion beyond Trump himself claiming it. It's ridiculous.
Trump's path to victory has to be in driving up turnout among disenfranchised white voters and possibly swinging over some angry blue-collar whites. This has to happen in sufficient numbers that it offsets losing some sensible centrists (as I think he will). Secondly, it needs to overcome the likely hit he takes with Hispanic vote share and turnout.
I'm not a big fan of Clinton but I think Gustaf is right. I think Trump's share of the non-Hispanic white vote will be similar to Romney's, maybe 60%. I think his share of the Black vote will be around 5-6%, similar to Romney's.
