Obviously Virginia is the prime southern state that democrats are looking to seal up for 2016 and beyond, but North Carolina should be next up. The question is how fast, if it all, this will happen. Looking at the numbers from the last 4 elections, the trend looks pretty great for democrats:
This is the North Carolina vote compared to the national popular vote:
2000: R+13,33
2004: R+10,04
2008: R+6,88
2012: R+1,96
Looking just at those numbers, the trend looks extremely worrying for conservatives and very encouraging for democrats. For each election, democrats have gained at least 3 percentage points on the GOP. Should this trend continue, North Carolina would be roughly D+1 in 2016.
So the question is whether this trend is as solid as it looks here or if the numbers are deceiving us. The argument in favour of the democratic trend is that growing urban areas, a growing number of hispanics, and well educated voters moving to North Carolina is benefitting dems and will continue to do so. An argument against could be that Obama has been in a unique position to challenge for North Carolina, which other dems might not be. Maybe a generic R against a generic D would not have produced the same swing?
Infact, if we look further back, the picture is more muddy:
1992: R+6,29
1996: R+11,19
So during the elections up until 2000, North Carolina was actually getting more republican. However, this could easily be explained by Bill Clinton having an entirely different appeal in the south than Gore/Kerry/Obama.
At the state level, unlike in Virginia, Republicans still control pretty much everything in North Carolina.
So what is your verdict? Is North Carolina trending reliably D to the point that the state will soon be lean D or is something different happening?
This drives me nuts. I dont think you know what PVI is. Is is the GOP or Dem performance in that state relative to the national popular vote. Your R+s are wrong
Depends on definition. Some people define 47/53 to 50/50 as a D+3 swing; others, as a D+6 swing (since the GOP margin of victory changed from 6 points to 0 points). A consistent definition would be nice. And I think NC will become a swing state, already is, and slowly will become more D as better educated parts of the state grow with respect to less educated, rural, more Republican parts.
