Niles Caulder
Jr. Member
Posts: 638
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« on: July 30, 2004, 05:43:23 PM » |
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Well, I think the dynamic of the Right Wing scuttling the Republican coalition used to be a real issue, most notably in 1992 with the Buchannan rebellion against "King George" mirroring Teddy Kennedy's assault for the nomination in '80 against the incumbant Jimmy Carter.
But I think this author is missing the much more plausible causes: It wasn't Ford's demise that cleared the path for Reagan. It was Carter's. It wasn't George Sr.'s demise that paved the way for the Gingrich revolution...it was the vacuum of effective leadership demonstrated in Clinton's first two years in office.
It's not nearly as much about ideology as it is about smelling blood. When a leader starts to appear weak, it's not just the "opposition" that attacks...it's time for the pack to fight for the spot of top-dog before the enemy gets there. Yeah, in the 90's the Republicans were getting grouchy...but in the Historical perspective they've got no comparison to Democratic infighting. (One of my all-time favorite quotes: "The only difference between a liberal and a cannibal is a cannibal won't eat his friends." --LBJ)
Bush may not be down, but he has been staggared...and to many appears vulnerable. But if anything the conservative base is relatively resigned and morose...not fiery or zealous. Perhaps they won't come to the polls in numbers to save Bush, but they're not feeling betrayed by a leader in any large number--not fracturing off to a fourth candidate or struggling for the reigns of the Party. They're demoralized by the realization that the Reagan era is long gone...and the Republican platform and its nationwide conventions don't belong to them anymore. (Liberals are in the same boat, albeit with a lazer-beam hatred of the incumbant boosting turnout--except true to form, they've got Nadar to sluff off the gains.)
And of course gridlock is not a Conservative ideal...nor a liberal one. It's a centrist one: the usual consensus of the country preventing either wing to get its agenda pushed through. Either wing prefers gridlock over the other party's dominance, sure...but I fail to see how the Conservative base is motivated to split the one-Party control their party now enjoys out of the principle of gridlock. Scuttling the Bush campaign will lose them the executive funding prohibition to abortion-counseling medical outreach programs, more stem-cell research, etc. Bush may be dissapointing to them...but Conservatives are still civic enough to know he's the best game in town--for now and the Party's uncertain future.
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