Enough of this "Moral Issues" Nonsense!

[Niles Caulder]

Finally, I dug up some documention to back up this hunch.

http://www.beliefnet.com/story/155/story_15598_1.html

David Brooks reiteritated this point tonight on McNeil/Lehrer.

You know this 3-day long tirade on "moral values" being the cause of Bush's victory on Tuesday...that notorious 20% of voters who cited 'moral issues' being the primary reason they showed up to the polls?  Have YOU been inundated with TV footage of beer-bellied rednecks at NASCAR races reminding you that the Civil War never ended?

Well, boys and girls...that's the media:  that's what they report because it's what they understand.  But it ain't true.

The proportion of evangelical Christian voters in this historic turnout was no greater than in the past.

Really.

The issues that the Religous Right champion such as prohibiting abortion and gay marriage had NO greater support among this electoral turnout that in the past.

Really.

There was a raw increase in numbers of these people, but it was no better than proportional.  The true relative increases in the support for Bush were in a) solidifying his hold [i.e. increasing turnout] in his base demographics, b) improving his performance among women, hispanics, and Catholics.

a) offset the mirror effort of the Democratic side.

b) won him the election.

The Swing Vote decided this election, as always.  It didn't decide on tired old B.S. issues like the hysterical media would have you believe.

Really.

[Niles Caulder]

I know for a fact that Evangelical turnout soared in OH, WV and PA

It soared in comparative quantities...but not in electorate share--just about everything soared to offset it.  That's the point I'm making.  Of that proportion, Bush's share increased as well, and that's surely significant.  But to say that the nation decided this election on 'moral issues' like the media is portraying it is erroneous.  These evangelical sorts were counterbalanced by the equally remarkable increased quantities of Kerry supporters (some of whom were no doubt voting on the same 'moral issues,' just on the opposing side.)

Ohio: rustbelt, hardest hit economically, hemoraging jobs.  Religion doesn't get Republicans elected under these circumstances.  Although I disagree with some of Nym's comments---Ohio voted to show its endurance and pain tolerance for the sake of Wartime communication to the world.

[Niles Caulder]

Fear does not always outperform hope.  1992 was proof positive.  It's a matter of whichever is made to be more Believable.

I have to agree with JJ on this one.  The Republicans were of course responsible for the active effort of characterization.  But they weren't responsible for the ammunition given to them by their own opponent.  To what extent do we say "The Democrats did a bad job of correcting it" over "It was really correct to some degree"  ?

Religious Demographics are on the side of the Democrats.  Add time to trends, and religion becomes a Democratic advantage.  Make no mistake, the South is transforming and becoming infested with all the religious elements that the Religious Right fear most.  It's foolish to judge American culture based on the timing of its election cycles.

As things progress, the South will continue to be the bastion of 'Old Fashioned' Theology...but it's already in seige mode...and has been for a long time.  Urbanite liberals wish they could wiggle their noses and enlighten them overnight by preaching their own futuristic vision...but that's not how it works.  Mostly, you wait until old people die, and young people age enough to get a grip and start voting.

[Niles Caulder]

The trend is not as simple as "away from religion"

The trend is towards "religious pluralism."

The outer-rim of secularists have increased to roughly 10% [from 2%] of the American population in the past two decades.

Self identified Christians as a whole have been declining from 90% to 80%.

Evangelical Prostestants have deteriorated below the 50% mark of the country just in this past year.

Buddhism and Islam are on a considerably verticle growth rate.