Manahan
Newbie
Posts: 7
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« on: July 30, 2004, 05:41:11 AM » |
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Similar to the US, our two major parties are not extreme, I guess hughento is right. The basic difference is that they are not well named, in that our Labor Party (ALP) is nothing like Blair's New Labour in Britain, being factionally divided and socialist leaning. The right of the party is socially progressive and economically rationalist. The left of the party is further divided and does have some centre leftists. The left of the party of dominated by trade unions and the right by academics, which is not a comfortable mix.
The Liberal Party/National Party coaliton is not liberal, but conservative. They are socially conservative and economically rationalist. They have proved over the past eight years to be economically progressive, expanding our GDP and reducing our foreign debt. They have consistently delivered budgetary surpluses.
Our 2004 election can be called at the Prime Minister's discretion with six weeks notice. My view:
Howard will call the next election after the next Senate session, in order to get the Free Trade Agreement with the USA signed. He will not wait for the US election, because he is seen as being "tied" to George W Bush and if the GOP goes down, then it is likely that the Libs will go down too. Therefore, I expect that we will go to the polls on the middle or last Saturday in October.
Regarding the FTA, I think that the ALP will support it in the Senate. It has already passed the House. Latham has proved himself inept as a statesman and will be keen to repair the damage that he did with his "troops out by Christmas" policy. The US relationship is critically important to Australia in the eyes of the electorate, and therefore critical to his election chances. Trouble is, Latham is in a bind. If he signs off on the FTA, his own left wing will hate him, and he will have handed an absolute coup to Howard. If doesn't, everyone will hate him.
My pick: It is really too close to call reliably, but Howard by a nose.
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