This is a tbqh dumb way of putting why I feel the vibe is weird, but if you look at the aggregate predictions over time on the
Atlas main site, all of the Senate midterms show Atlas getting increasingly bullish on the out-party's seat count as we got closer to the election meaning we all started with the assumption of an even election before realizing there was a wave coming. With 2022, I think the consensus here has been some type of R wave for awhile (because as we've learned since 2006, of course that's what will happen), and that hasn't really panned out in the data so far so we're now adjusting our expectations in an unfamiliar direction.
Ultimately, I think that's what making people feel weird - we've gotten used to a certain type of midterm narrative since 2006 and so far this cycle hasn't really fit that, so we're all trying to figure out what's happening.
