Would Scott Stringer have won the mayoral election if he wasn’t a sex pest?

[pikachu]

Question’s in the title basically. I think it’s fair to say that Stringer was probably a stringer candidate than everyone else who tried to claim the mantle of the NYC liberal-left and he was on a bit of a surge before the Jean Kim story, almost trying with Adams for second place in March polls. Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

[pikachu]

I doubt it. He was way back in most polls and did not have the looks/personality to catch fire with low-attention voters.

So, I don’t think this is entirely true – the harassment allegations happened in late April, and at that point, he was clearly at least third place and occasionally tying for second in the first round. This was all pre-Yang collapse.

No, but he could've siphoned off more support from Wiley but he would've finished 3rd or 4th without the sex scandal. The final 2 would've been Adams and Garcia.

I don’t see how Garcia and Wiley’s surges can be disentangled from Stringer’s fall. Wiley’s surge only happened after she got the endorsements that led to the left consolidation around her, while Garcia’s was after the NYT endorsement. But Stringer pre-scandal already had those left endorsements (e.g. Bowman, Salazar, Brisport; maybe he gets AOC?) while he’s probably a much more natural fit for the NYT endorsement than Garcia was – he got it in 2013 for Comptroller and 2005 for Manhattan BP.

[pikachu]

Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

I know it's presumptive, but they're barely done with first-round voting

Hey, I’ll be happy if I look like an idiot on this one.

[pikachu]

Could he have pulled it off or was an Adams victory inevitable?

I know it's presumptive, but they're barely done with first-round voting

Hey, I’ll be happy if I look like an idiot on this one.

Well I’m looking like an idiot.

Also seems clear the answer to the thread title is probably yes?