Assuming that the line between NorCal and SoCal was set at Kern/SLO/San Bernardino, because that makes geographical sense, it'd still be safe Dem. While it's somewhat plausible to see Republican winning Orange, SLO, Riverside, and SB again, San Diego County looks likes its pretty much lost forever, or at least would require a
much better candidate (Romney lost it by 8 and Trump lost it by 17!), for Republicans to win the county, let alone get the margins needed to make up for LA. Though tbf Republicans will never get the margins to make up 30-40 point losses in LA County anyway. I ran the numbers for Bush-Kerry in SoCal, and Kerry still managed a 52-48 win, even though he lost everywhere outside of LA by 5-10 points.
What interests me is, how would this state had behaved in the 90s? In gubernatorials, senate, etc?
What about in the 2010 Senate and gubernatorial races?
It's about 54-46 in favor of the Democrats. Again, the GOP's demographic collapse with Latinos and urbanites probably makes this high-water mark for them for quite some time.
