Republican Iowa Caucus results thread (entrance poll @8pm ET)

[pikachu]

Hopefully Trump pulls away some more from Rubio so he doesn't get any momentum for NH.

[pikachu]

CNN at 97%

[pikachu]

CNN should really just call for Cruz at this point.

[pikachu]

If the CNN map's accurate, I think Trump's going to get second.

[pikachu]

3rd place = coronation? I know Rubio beat expectations, but so did Cruz by finishing first after all the polls had him down...and the calendar is still more favorable towards Cruz...

[pikachu]

3rd place = coronation? I know Rubio beat expectations, but so did Cruz by finishing first after all the polls had him down...and the calendar is still more favorable towards Cruz...

Rubio's chances in a head-to-head match-up against Cruz are exponentially better than his chances in a match-up against Trump.

If Rubio doesn't win NH, then he's not going to have a head-to-head. As of now, he's still losing NH, and I'd guess that the other establishment candidates are going to spend the rest of the week continuing to try destroying him there. Now, maybe there'll be a poll in NH which has Trump's 20-point lead completely collapsing and Rubio pulling away and I'll be completely wrong, but if loses NH and SC (not implausible), than he's a guy with no victories going into deeply hostile Super Tuesday territory. Imo, the favorite at this point should be Cruz. His path looks the clearest.

[pikachu]

3rd place = coronation? I know Rubio beat expectations, but so did Cruz by finishing first after all the polls had him down...and the calendar is still more favorable towards Cruz...

Rubio's chances in a head-to-head match-up against Cruz are exponentially better than his chances in a match-up against Trump.

If Rubio doesn't win NH, then he's not going to have a head-to-head. As of now, he's still losing NH, and I'd guess that the other establishment candidates are going to spend the rest of the week continuing to try destroying him there. Now, maybe there'll be a poll in NH which has Trump's 20-point lead completely collapsing and Rubio pulling away and I'll be completely wrong, but if loses NH and SC (not implausible), than he's a guy with no victories going into deeply hostile Super Tuesday territory. Imo, the favorite at this point should be Cruz. His path looks the clearest.

Disagree strongly.  Trump out early (after NH or prior to 3/1) means Cruz can coalesce the anti-establishment and Evangelical vote and take that fight to the South.  Trump winning NH and doing respectably in SC sets up Rubio plurality wins throughout the South, and should be enough to seal the deal for Rubio.  Unless Trump actually wins SC and/or NV, in which case Rubio fades and we're back to Trump vs. Cruz.  The latter would greatly surprise me at this point.

The partial establishment embrace of Trump in January really looks like a McCaskill play to me now.  Their internals probably had a statistical tie/narrow Cruz lead all along!

I can see that happening, but let's remember in 2012, we had a similar scenario. Romney still didn't win a single contested Southern state, and I think that since then, the anti-establishment vote share has only grown. I'm probably considerably more skeptical than you that Rubio's going to actually win any early states, and I think that Cruz and Trump are going to be more appealing candidates than Gingrich and Santorum were following February 2012. (And if I'm correct Rubio is entering the South with much less inevitability than Romney 2012, though I do think Rubio's a significantly better population.)