Was Norman Thomas right? (user search)
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  Was Norman Thomas right? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Was Norman Thomas right?  (Read 3111 times)
David S
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,250


« on: August 13, 2004, 12:15:06 PM »
« edited: August 13, 2004, 12:15:50 PM by David S »

Norman Thomas, a former U.S. Socialist
Presidential Candidate   once made this comment:
“The American people will never knowingly adopt socialism. But, under the name of 'liberalism,' they will adopt every fragment of the socialist program, until one day America will be a socialist nation, without knowing how it happened."

Was he right?
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David S
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,250


« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2004, 06:17:34 PM »

The first sentence is correct. Thank the Lord.

The second sentence has seemed incorrect mostly throughout our history. In modern times, we got closest to it under FDR. LBJ wanted us to go there, but we fought him and rejected it. Carter wanted to take us there and we rejected it soundly. Mondale and Dukakis likewise, and they were flatly rejected. Clinton ended the welfare state as we knew it. Libs have been on a losing streak since FDR on this one. And we keep moving further from it. Almost no one wants the label of "liberal Democrat."
If Federal spending on social programs can be used as a measure of socialism then it seems that socialism has been growing steadily since 1940, as shown in the following website;

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/fed_budget.htm
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David S
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,250


« Reply #2 on: August 13, 2004, 10:44:38 PM »

Perhaps this graphic is a little less misleading/agenda-driven. It is from a shady little internet site called the Congressional Budget Office Wink

Federal Outlays, 1962 to 2001 (as percentage of GDP)



Federal Receipts, 1962-2003 (as percentage of GDP)

http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1821&sequence=0#table4

Virtually all the increase in social spending comes from demographic changes. This is what explains the seeming contradiction between the drastic decline of social programs since Reagan and the increase in "social spending". The answer is that existing programs, namely Social Security, and to a smaller extent medicare, are costing a lot more because of rising health care costs and retired seniors as a rising percentage of the population. This problem will only get worse after 2010 when the boomers start retiring. That is why Social Security needs some deep reform... and reform is going to happen eventually, no matter who gets elected, because it will have to happen if the government is to remain in any decent fiscal shape.
I believe both graphs are valid, but there are 3 differences in the data plotted:
1) Your data is based on spending as a percentage of GDP, whereas Hodges is based on spending as a percentage of National Income, a smaller figure.
2) Your plot goes from 1962 to 2001. Hodges goes from 1947 to 2002. So the increase Hodges shows is over a longer time span and shows of course a greater growth in spending.
3) The other plots, defense, interest etc are shown individually in Hodges plots whereas your plots are cumulative. That is it starts with Social spending, then shows defense added to that and so on.
I think there are other differences such as what is included in social programs. But your graph also shows the Social programs growing about 2 or 2 and 1/2 times from 1962 to 2001. That's about the same as Hodges. Your data is from a government source and is reliable, but Hodges data is extracted from another government agency, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and is also reliable.
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David S
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,250


« Reply #3 on: August 14, 2004, 12:45:30 PM »
« Edited: August 14, 2004, 03:32:17 PM by David S »

Beet
Your comments are thoughtful and well reasoned, based on facts and figures. But the conclusion I see, using CBO data or Hodges, is that the spending on social programs has grown rapidly since 1962. The combined cost of Medicare and Medicaid from CBO data at
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=1821&sequence=0#table9  has grown from 4.4 billion in 1967 to 434 billion in 2003. That is nearly a 100 fold increase; far in excess of inflation. What will those costs look like when the baby-boomers start retiring and needing more medical care? Throw in Bush’s Rx program and the costs go up even faster.
I don’t think this is just a coincidence. It is an unavoidable consequence of socialism. Other undesirable results which the Canadian and British health care programs have already experienced are wage and price control, (makes doctors unhappy), rationing, shortages and waiting lines (makes patients unhappy). No improvement is in sight.
Capitalism uses the competitive free market system to keep prices under control, and ultimately works better much than socialism.

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