So Russia and Georgia just went to war

[Jake]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1831523,00.html

Important parts:

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Something tells me this is motivated less by nationalism than by the poor state of the Russian lower class.

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A depressingly common facet of 21st century warfare.

[Jake]

Yes but there won't be the kind of resistance in Georgia as there was in Chechnya after the Russians are finished defeating the Georgians. I expect there to be a fairly strong insurgency for quite a while but it is nothing the Russians won't be able to handle.

How do you figure exactly? Georgia is something like 80% ethnic Georgian with some Azeris, Armenians, and very few Russians. That's comparable to the 90% figure of Chechens in Chechnya. And if anything, arms will be easier to come by considering Georgia's neighbors.

[Jake]

Well I do agree with you that there will be a large insurgency, just not as large as Chechnya's. Perhaps I should change my wording:
I think the convential war will be very short, sharp and quick but the insurgency should play out over a year or so but less bloodily than Chechnya with rebels mostly having strongholds in the mountains.

Accepting you were wrong is fine too.