U.S. Multiparty system from Global Paradigms

[Jake]

If unionism is the basis for the Labor Party, there'd have to be another southern party around that eventually collapsed to make way for the Constiution Party to form as unionism hardly had a pulse in the south. So, if you had the Liberals, Labor, and this southern party which is kept alive by civil rights/racism and dies in the 60s/70s, either the Liberals or Labor could be the party of civil rights. Ideologically, I can't see the black community fitting into the outlined Liberal Party. I mean, Obama's able to make the coalition work, but he has once in a lifetime charisma that makes it possible. So Labor would make a lot sense.

Or (gasp) black politics might not be so polarized and supporters could be found in either party (though unlikely in the Constitution as it will be strongly supported by Dixiecrats).

[Jake]

Anyone think that the "Crazy Election Scenario" maps out five possible parties pretty well?

Not unless American democracy suddenly sprouted into existence in 2001.

No Conservative Party would exist alongside a Populist Party, especially not when the two of them are based on essentially the same voter groups (rural whites and Sun Belt suburbia. I also can't see how the Liberty Party and Centrist Party could exist as they'd be drawing almost all their votes from the same source (the middle class suburban white vote). If you read it, they have essentially the same beliefs on every issue. I do buy the existence of a Social Democratic Party though. That certainly could have roots in history, but there's no way the two right wing parties could've emerged attracting the voters they attract.

[Jake]

Wait, you're expecting a Christian Democratic Party to emerge out of the Republican Party?

Is that a serious statement?

There's a fracture in the GOP right now, sure. The coalition between the pre-Goldwater GOP, the Dixiecrats, and the Religious Right was never perfect, but to change the coalitions in political parties takes a pretty earth shattering event. Civil Rights did it. Slavery did it. And that's about it. I certainly doubt the coalitions will shift so soon. We've only just in the last 15 years consolidated the coalitions and entered a period of hyper-partisanship.

No faction of the Republican Party could survive alone and no faction actually fits with the current Democratic Party (which is first and foremost an economically left-wing party and secondly a socially liberal party). Mega-church and Country-club are stuck together, like it or not, for the forseeable future simply because neither is electable nationwide without the other.

[Jake]

The point raised is interesting, but he mentions at the end the snag - unions. They're not going to abandon the Democrats without the Democrats doing something to deserve it (suddenly backing free trade, school vouchers, etc.). And that raises another snag. The Democrats are not becoming more libertarian on economics. If anything, this year's campaign (FWIW) has emphasized protecting social security, expanding government subsidized health care, the merits of fair trade, stopping outsourcing. There's no impetus for the Democrats to change on those positions; the Republican's conservative views on abortion, gay rights, Christianity, etc. are proving enough to attract white suburbanites without necessarily adopting their platform.

So no, to answer you and the Daily Kos guy, I don't think such scenario is possible. Firstly because the neither block of the right is electable without the other and secondly because the Democratic coalition would have to undergo a similar change that is not happening.