There is no way AZ is safer for the Dems than NJ, MN, MD, or WA. Doesn't do much good winning AZ if they lose two of those four. Hell, the GOP has a better chance of gaining VT than the Dems do AZ.
Vermont is
not vulnerable in any circumstance. Arizona could be vulnerable, so no.
Right now, in terms of vulnerability for the incumbent (if running) or party (if not):
1. PA - No question here, Santorum hasn't led yet this year in any poll.
2. RI - Chafee has a tough primary and general election fight on his hands.
3. MT - Burns hasn't been polling well at all.
4. CT - We'll have to see more polls on this one.
5. OH - DeWine hasn't been polling well at all.
6. NJ - All polls have this one super close with high undecideds. Pretty much an open seat too.
7. MO - Polls are close, though Talent has the money advantage.
8. MN - Simply because it's an open seat race.
<gap>
9. TN - Ford could win if a lot of factors go his way.
10. VA - Allen seems determined to give Webb ammo. Webb needs money though.
11. WA - McGavick's been polling pretty decently. We'll see.
<gap>
12. NV - Not close yet, probably won't be.
13. MD - Open seat where Cardin is winning the primary fight. This jumps up into the first group if Mfume takes the nomination.
14. AZ - Kyl has led solidly in every poll and has the incumbent advantage.
15. NE - No reason not to re-elect Nelson, but on here because of the state lean.
None of the rest are vulnerable at all.
