Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
Political Matrix
E: -0.90, S: -0.35
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« on: July 22, 2005, 12:31:38 AM » |
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About Hafer, the Northeast only voted for Kerry by a few percenatage points, mainly on his strength in Scranton. It is doubtful that Hafer could preform anywhere near Kerry in a the Northeast. As for the Southwest and the West as a whole, Santorum would obviously dominate save for the city of Pittsburgh. The "T" would go big for Santorum leaving the Southeast as Hafer's saving grace. Hafer would have to improve upon Kerry by a significant margin in the Southeast to come close to winning, something which is very doubtful.
Casey's strength comes from his populism and his ability to put areas like the West and Northeast back in the Democratic column. Casey has a large base of populist Democrats that would normally vote for a Republican against a Hafer-like liberal. Hafer brings only her liberal base to the table, no sway among populists in the key regions. Hafer would depend upon massive turnout in the SE and somehow swinging 5% additional voters from Kerry's column in the SE to defeat Santorum. Hafer is likely to lose a House race and would be sure to lose the Senate race.
A comment on fundraising. Hafer brings the pro-abortion lobby and the MoveOn lobby to play. That's obviously a double edged sword with the voters she needs to recruit.
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