If your states' House delegation was elected at large by PR ?

[Jake]

In PA, the Constitution Party might win one seat in a good year. Also, I could see the Libertarians winning a seat once in awhile.

The GOP would be hurt badly by this.  We, right now, have 12 seats to the Democrats 7.

[Jake]

PA Totals

1,947,713 Democrats     42.4%   8

2,531,317 Republicans   55.1% 11

   53,504 Libertarians       1.2%

   60,000 Other                 1.3%

4,592,534 Total

GOP loses 1 seat

This is without results for PA-12 & PA-14 which were uncontested Democratic victories. If we estimate 200,000 Democrat votes and 100,000 Republican votes in those areas we get:

2,347,713 Democrats     45.2%   9

2,731,317 Republicans   52.6% 10

   53,504 Libertarians       1.0%   

   60,000 Other                 1.1%

5,192,534 Total

GOP loses 2 seats

[Jake]

You need to take into account that using proportional representation, people would vote differently than they do now. People would be more willing to vote third party, since they would have a higher chance of getting someone in that party into office.

You're right.  In PA, maybe 3% will defect from the GOP to the Consitution.  Maybe 3% will go Libertarian and 2% Green.

My predictions if there was PR in 2004

Republicans 47% 10
Democrats   44%   9
Libertarians   3%
Constitution   3%
Greens           2%
Other             1%

I'm assuming a 5% cutoff to get seats.  If not, then both the Constitutionalists and the Libertarians would get 1 seat and subtract 1 from the other parties.