Ecuadorian elections (referendum, 21 April 2024)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

How right wing is Sonnenholzner by the way?

Sonnenholzner is one of the various Ecuadorian politicians who signed in 2021 the VOX-sponsored Madrid Charter...

I'm pretty confident this will come down to González v Sonnenholzner in the runoff

How do you think this plays out? Can González mess up this lead or is this pretty much done now?

Yaku Pérez has a good chance of making it to a runoff, but I think González avoiding a runoff might be more likely than either of those scenarios. She doesn’t need 50%, only to break 40% and have a 10% margin.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

* Christian Zurita voted in a school in northern Quito protected by a police and military escort, the first time such measure is required for a presidential candidate.

https://twitter.com/yali_loaiza/status/1693289713979760646

Dukakis vibes.

If Dukakis had stepped up to the plate after Jesse Jackson’s murder, I guess.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Noboa, huh! Big if true. I saw people anecdotally saying he had a good performance in the debate but besides that he’s been a total non-factor for me. Very interesting to see how the rest of the night plays out, whether or not those polls are accurate.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Noboa, huh! Big if true. I saw people anecdotally saying he had a good performance in the debate but besides that he’s been a total non-factor for me. Very interesting to see how the rest of the night plays out, whether or not those polls are accurate.

Same. Especially if my recent expectation is correct that anyone who makes the runoff vs Gonzalez will easily consolidate the security vote for the runoff.  

Also no surprise on Yasuni, though I would be interested to see if the No vote correlates with anything.

I’m inclined to agree, but I think Noboa might have a more difficult time. Topic has a brand, Noboa is a nepo baby.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Noboa, huh! Big if true. I saw people anecdotally saying he had a good performance in the debate but besides that he’s been a total non-factor for me. Very interesting to see how the rest of the night plays out, whether or not those polls are accurate.

Is he the same Noboa that lost multiple elections in a row?

That was Álvaro, this is his son Daniel. Álvaro briefly declared his candidacy but ended up not running.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Watching interviews with Noboa and he’s exactly as impressive as you’d imagine a guy who’s only ever worked for his dad’s business would be. Polished, though!

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

So it looks like it's gonna be some combination of Gonzalez-Noboa-Zurita as 1-2-3

If this first 10% of results is representative, Zurita will be fighting with Topic for third place.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I will say in his favor that Noboa supported a yes vote in the Yasuní referendum. González, in keeping with correísta tradition, supported no.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

With just over 15% in:

Daniel Noboa (ADN): 52.0%
Luisa González (RC): 48%

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think it’s good for correismo that they didn’t win this. A stunted half-term will just be an albatross for whoever wins, especially an ingenue like both of these candidates are.