Is America A Natural GOP Gerrymander? (user search)
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  Is America A Natural GOP Gerrymander? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is America A Natural GOP Gerrymander?  (Read 7627 times)
traininthedistance
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« on: October 16, 2014, 01:49:45 PM »

Yeah, splitline isn't "fair" at all due to how it disregards natural borders and metro areas.
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2014, 09:09:56 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2014, 09:14:19 PM by traininthedistance »


Of course, that is only easy with regularly-shaped, not terribly Gerried districts like this one.  What could we come up with for the name of the neighboring district, formerly known as PA-7?




This is my district and I had absolutely no clue how gerrymandered this was. What an utter embarrassment. I would've figured at least everything south of the Main Line would be part of this district (namely Paoli/Malvern) and probably expected up northward to the PA Turnpike. Here I was complaining for months about how my state assembly district was gerrymandered because Freshman year I was one of three dorms put in a Solid Democratic district before finally switching into the Solid Republican district this year. Didn't even think the US reps from PA were this bad. Should've known since there are never any tight races in this state. This and Fitzpatrick's district up near Bucks County are two of the most competitive in the state!! Should've realized the gerrymander wasn't completely natural, but I figured it was reasonable to have slightly Republican districts just outside of 99% D Philly (especially in Delaware County moreso than Montgomery and Bucks). Boy, this is disheartening.

Obama broke 60% in Delco not only in 2008, but also in 2012; and in fact no Republican has won it since 1988.  To be fair they still have some ancestral down-ballot strength, but for federal offices it is anything but natural to make "slightly Republican districts" in the Philly suburbs- the exact opposite (slightly Dem districts) would be correct instead.

Worth noting that Bucks district is actually pretty much the only district in the state that isn't a complete abomination; for whatever reason Bucks' county lines are kept sacrosanct even when the Republicans pull out all the stops everywhere else.  And Bucks is a good deal more Republican than Delco, as well: even though it also hasn't voted R for Prez since the elder Bush, the margins have been much narrower, and the right Pub could still capture it, which just isn't true for Delco anymore.  

Also worth noting that the Philly burbs have been gerrymandered for quite some time, but the current batch of lines is arguably the worst in the country (though North Carolina and Maryland give it stiff competition).  I had the misfortune of casting my 2006 vote in this monstrosity:

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traininthedistance
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2014, 09:18:17 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2014, 09:31:56 PM by traininthedistance »


Well, the objectives usually listed for a non-gerrymandered USA aren't all in alignment.  "Compact districts that preserve communities of interest" doesn't necessarily jive too well with "Maximize number of competitive districts."

I don't actually care too much about maximizing competitive districts.  Some areas are rock-solid one way or another and that should just be respected.  I do care about, if not completely counteracting the effects of natural packing, mitigating their worst excesses, so that for each state a 50/50 result (measured via uniform swing, presumably) comes out to something resembling a 50/50 seat distribution.  And, preferably, that the slope as you go away from 50/50 in either direction isn't too asymmetrical.

Balance that with "compact districts that preserve communities of interest" and we're good to go.  Those two ideals are not one hundred percent compatible, but I think they can be reconciled much better than a mandate to maximize competitive districts.
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