The 1,000 Districts Series

[traininthedistance]

Oh, hey, forgot I had this lying around for the last month.  It's an alternative Mississippi that prioritizes keeping counties together over strict population equality (though it still hews to my rule of keeping districts no more than 1 percent away from the ideal).  With a lot of rural area, a lot of small counties, and a lot of areas where county government is the smallest subdivision, doing something like this makes sense here.  Regions are still mostly kept together, and a fair ratio of black-majority districts is also maintained.  The state is almost 35 percent black by VAP, and there are three black-majority districts plus a fourth where they break 40 percent and could conceivably elect a Democrat as well.

Only two counties are split- something must be split in the Gulfport/Biloxi/Passacougla area (EDIT: if you want to keep the cities there together, as I do), and I also split Madison, which has obvious CoI reasons and may be necessary as well (is not strictly necessary but enables one district to remain entirely within the Jackson metro, and improves the black percentage of another).

The state:



DISTRICT 1: SOUTHHAVEN-OXFORD-NORTHWEST.  Pop 296,040.  O 38.6%.  69W/25B.  The heart of this district are the Memphis suburbs/exurbs in DeSoto, which take up over half the population here.  Also included are two more rural counties technically in the Memphis metro (Tate and Marshall); Lafayette (Oxford), Benton and Yalobusha.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 2: TUPELO-NORTHEAST.  Pop 295,205.  O 29.3%.  80W/17B.  Ten counties, Tupelo is easily the main population center here but it's mostly rural.  This is the least black district in the state, though 9 is a smudge more white.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 3: DELTA NORTH.  Pop 297,676.  O 59.6%.  41W/56B.  Fifteen whole counties, entirely rural (the largest town is Clarksdale, 17K as of the last Census), not entirely within the Delta but close to it.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 4: GOLDEN TRIANGLE-MERIDIAN-EAST CENTRAL.  Pop 295,080.  O 47.7%.  57W/40B.  The largest city here is Meridian, but the Starkville/Columbus/West Point area is larger in aggregate.  Nine whole counties consisting basically of those four towns and surrounding rural areas.  This is the one district outside of the Delta or Jackson to include a sizable amount of the Black Belt, and as such is far more closely divided than the rest of the state.  In addition, there might even be a couple white liberals in Starkville.  A fairly mild Lean R sounds right, if the state flips, this district will lead the way.

Might as well show things a little closer in southern MS, to get the two split counties at least:



DISTRICT 5: DELTA SOUTH-NATCHEZ TRACE.  Pop 296,873.  O 58.9%.  41W/55B.  The second black-majority district, it takes in thirteen whole counties and rural north Madison.  The rest of the Delta is here, as well as heavily-black areas in the southwestern corner of the state.  Quite rural, but a few more recognizable towns than District 3, with Vicksburg, Greenville, and Natchez.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 6: JACKSON CITY AND WEST.  Pop 296,047.  O 64.8%.  35W/62B.  All of Hinds, and then it takes in Copiah to the south and a few precincts of Madison for population.  One of two districts in the state with any even vaguely urban flavor at all (10 is the other), and also the most heavily black and Safest D.

DISTRICT 7:RANKIN-EAST OF JACKSON.  Pop 298,780.  O 28.2%.  72W/22B.  Mostly Rankin County and the suburban, white parts of Madson; also takes four more counties in the center of the state to fill out population (Simpson, Scott, Leake, Neshoba).  I expected this to be the safest R district, but it's actually not.  It is still obviously quite Safe R, though.

DISTRICT 8: LAUREL-BROOKHAVEN-SOUTH CENTRAL.  Pop 294,104.  O 35.6%.  66W/31B.  Thirteen counties, very rural, no famous identity like the Delta. The state's highest deviation, at -2,626.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 9: HATTIESBURG-PINE BELT.  Pop 298,822.  O 26.2%.  78W/17B.  Six whole counties and a split of Harrison with 10; reaches down to a little of the Gulf Coast but most of that area is in 10.  The safest R in the state.

DISTRICT 10:  GULF COAST.  Pop 298,670.  O 35.8%.  70W/21B.  All of Jackson and most of Harrison, the Gulfport/Biloxi/Passacougla area.  With an Obama percentage over 14 points higher than the black percentage, this appears to be the least polarized district in Mississippi, which is, erm, not exactly a high bar.  Assuming that Gene Taylor stays retired, it's Safe R.

...

3 Safe D (all black-majority), 1 Lean R, 6 Safe R.  A pretty obvious arrangement, about the only gerrymandering you can do here is give the Dems a fourth minority-majority district (which would be based on 4), or break up 4 for the Pubs' benefit.

[traininthedistance]

DISTRICT 3: BLACK BELT EAST-TUSCALOOSA SOUTH.  Pop 297,391.  O 57.4%, D 63.9%.  

DISTRICT 5- AUBURN-OPELIKA-OZARK.  Pop 301,208.  O 40.8%, D 43.8%.  66W/27B.  North of 4 and wrapping around the black-majority 6, this district has all of Pike, Dale, Barbour, and Lee, and splits Russell (just east of Columbus, GA) with 6.  Not exactly urban, but more large towns than 3 or 4.  One of the state's more Democratic districts, and yet still Safe R.

DISTRICT 6- MONTGOMERY-BLACK BELT WEST.  Pop 296,568.  O 61.9%, D 58.5%.  40W/55B.  

Love the series, and I don't mean to be nitpicky, but I've noticed here (and in many previous posts) a tendency for you to get east and west mixed up.  Just an FYI.  

Oh, jeez, that's embarrassing.  Fixed.  I've caught myself doing it a couple times, actually, but thought I had edited it out.

Please, everyone, feel free to pick any other nits you find.  I want to get the details right, and will happily go back to edit to that end.

[traininthedistance]

Oh, hey, forgot I had this lying around for the last month.  It's an alternative Mississippi that prioritizes keeping counties together over strict population equality (though it still hews to my rule of keeping districts no more than 1 percent away from the ideal).  With a lot of rural area, a lot of small counties, and a lot of areas where county government is the smallest subdivision, doing something like this makes sense here.  Regions are still mostly kept together, and a fair ratio of black-majority districts is also maintained.  The state is almost 35 percent black by VAP, and there are three black-majority districts plus a fourth where they break 40 percent and could conceivably elect a Democrat as well.

Only two counties are split- something must be split in the Gulfport/Biloxi/Passacougla area, and I also split Madison, which has obvious CoI reasons and may be necessary as well.

I couldn't resist checking. It turns out you can keep all counties intact, stay within 1% and keep three BVAP-majority districts.

Very nice.  FWIW, I do think the two splits on my map are worth it, mainly for the purpose of metro area contiguity.

[traininthedistance]

I made a map for Texas, but don't feel like writing up eighty districts just yet.

So, Missourah in the meantime.  19 districts.  The state is about 11 percent black, which should mean two VRA districts; we actually have one each black-majority, black-plurality (by total population only), and minority-majority.  And, no, that is not *quite* it for the Dems, but the overall lay of the land is pretty bad for them here.  The Dem average is a little better (I think it's mostly based on Jay Nixon's win?), but Obama only won seven of these in 2008, which was basically a 50/50 race.  The downballot opportunities are probably somewhat better, and I'm fairly liberal with giving safe Romney districts a mere "lean R" rating because there could always be another Todd Akin… but still.  Going by Akin's results makes about as much sense as going by Martha Coakley, that is to say it's an extreme outer bound.

Whole-county districts are legion- I was able to get everything outside of the two big metros in whole counties, and as such there aren't a whole lot of close-ups here.  It does also mean deviations are fairly high.

The whole state:



And the St. Louis metro:



DISTRICT 1: ST. LOUIS CITY.  Pop 317,891.  O 83.7%, D 84.8%.  47W/45B.  The city of St. Louis is just a tiny bit too large for one district, so it gives a precinct to 3 and otherwise takes up all of 1.  Pity about the packing.  This district is black-plurality by total population (49 to 42).  Safe D.

DISTRICT 2: NORTH COUNTY (ST. LOUIS).  Pop 316,246.  O 77.1%, D 81.0%.  44W/51B.  The northern part of St. Louis suburbs, mostly black-majority suburbs.  In a break from what I do on the Midwest maps, I went with town and village lines in St. Louis County (and by Kansas City) despite the nominal presence of townships here; it seems like townships really don't matter and even get their boundaries changed from time to time, while towns basically cover all the boundaries we need over here.  Florissant is the largest city here.  Safe D.

DISTRICT 3: MID COUNTY (ST. LOUIS).  Pop 315,476.  O 62.9%, D 64.3%.  77W/15B.  Just west of St. Louis proper (and including one precinct for population), this is largely inner-ring suburbs, and probably counts as the state's one honest-to-goodness white liberal district.  University City is the largest town, but there are a lot of towns here and none of them are particularly large in area or population.  (There are other potential white Democratic districts, but they're all quite closer.)  Safe D.

DISTRICT 4: ST. CHARLES.  Pop 317,127.  O 45.2%, D 46.7%.  Exurban St. Charles County is a little too large for a whole district, so 4 takes most of it (including the largest cities of St. Charles and O'Fallon), and leaves a chunk in the south of the county for 5.  The lines here are crazy, so I couldn't really keep to town boundaries like I did in St. Louis County.  I'll go with Lean R rather than safe, even if it's still for now a very strong lean that would require an Akin-type to flip.  (It did flip for McCaskill in 2012, which is the main reason I refrained from a "safe" rating.)

DISTRICT 5: WEST COUNTY (ST. LOUIS)-SOUTH ST. CHARLES.  Pop 314,885.  O 41.2%, D 42.2%.  The rest of St. Charles, but mostly western St. Louis County (and some of South County, I guess).  Chesterfield and Wildwood are the largest towns in this suburban/exurban district, which is without a doubt the richest in the state.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 6: JEFFERSON-SOUTH COUNTY (ST. LOUIS).  Pop 315,841.  O 49.9% (McC 48.8%), D 55.7%.  Jefferson County and St. Louis County along the river, south of the city. The St. Louis metro worked out well county-wise, with the city and the three closest suburban counties fitting exactly six districts.  This is the sort of white working-class area that's historically been very Democratic but Romney won in 2012; some areas are gone for good but this one is sufficiently non-rural that I'd be cautious about making that pronouncement here just yet.  Tossup.

DISTRICT 7: LEAD HILLS-FRANKLIN-FARMINGTON.  Pop 317,280.  O 43.6%, D 48.1%.  Twelve counties in southeast Missouri, including the Farmington micropolitan area, two counties on the St. Louis outskirts (Washington and Franklin, the latter of which has one-third of the district's population), and a lot of rural areas.   There's some historic Dem strength from the area's mining heritage, but this has to be a secure-in-most-cases Lean R anyway.

DISTRICT 8: CAPE GIRARDEAU-POPLAR BLUFF-BOOTHEEL.  Pop 316,624.  O 34.3%, D 37.7%.  Eleven counties in the far southeast of the state; largely rural outside of Cape Girardeau.  Even Akin won this.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 9: SOUTH CENTRAL-OZARKS SALEM PLATEAU.  Pop 317,384.  O 33.6%, D 38.2%.  Ten counties, kind of an ugly shape because I'm trying to keep to whole counties.  Mostly rural, with several micropolitan centers (West Plains in the south; Lebanon, Ft. Leonard Wood, and Rolla in the north) as well as some southern Springfield suburbs.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 10:  SPRINGFIELD.  Pop 313,808.  O 40.2%, D 41.6%.  Greene and Franklin counties, over half the population is in Springfield proper.  It would have been nice to pair Greene with another county technically in the metro, but rural Franklin was the only one with the right population.  Claire McCaskill actually won this by about 1500 votes but who are we kidding.  Safe R.

DISTRICT 11: JOPLIN-BRANSON-SOUTHWEST OZARKS.  Pop 318,075.  O 31.3%, D 31.7%.  Six counties in the southwest corner, the other southern Missouri district which is mostly urbanized.  The Joplin metro takes up most of the population here, but you've also got Branson (which is actually much smaller than its fame) and some Fayetteville, Arkansas exurbs too.  Safe R.

Might as well show Kansas City and the I-70 Corridor here.



DISTRICT 12: OSAGE LAKES-NORTH OZARKS.  Pop 313,080.  O 35.6%,  43.8%.  Thirteen whole counties, and most of Cass except for the towns of Belton and Raymore- so it is actually part of the Kansas City county grouping, which had to include a rural district unlike St. Louis.  Mostly rural, with the geographic heart of the district around the several manmade reservoirs in the Osage Plains, but it also includes northern Springfield outskirts, southern KC outskirts, and Western Missouri towns such as Sedalia.  While McCaskill may have won it (I can't tell from a cursory glance), the Ike Skelton days are over and I feel pretty safe calling it Safe R.

DISTRICT 13: JEFFERSON CITY-CENTRAL.  Pop 312,504.  O 36.1%, D 42.7%.  Twelve counties; all of the Jefferson City metro and everything else is basically rural (though the Census does count Mexico as micropolitan).  Safe R.

DISTRICT 14:  COLUMBIA-MISSOURI RIVER.  Pop 312,235.  O 49.9% (McC 48.4%), D 54.2%.  Seven counties almost all along the river, most of the population lives in Boone (Columbia).  Warrensburg and Marshall are the secondary population centers.  Barely won by Obama in '08.  The numbers are almost equivalent to 6, but for whatever reason I feel like this district falls just on the Lean R side of things, rather than the tossup I rated the other one.

DISTRICT 15: MARK TWAIN-NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  Pop 317,343.  O 40.5%, D 44.2%.  Twenty-two counties.  Despite technically including two outlying counties in the St. Louis metro, this is easily the most rural district in the state; its largest population centers appear to be the sub-20K Kirksville and Hannibal.  Safe R… probably.

DISTRICT 16: NORTHWEST-ST. JOSEPH-PLATTE.  Pop 314,538.  O 44.5%, D 46.7%.  Thirteen counties in the northwest.  Some rural areas, the St. Joseph area, and a significant amount of Kansas City countryside.  Platte County, in the southwest of the district, actually contains part of KC proper, but most of that is the airport.  Another Lean R that's probably secure for most non-Akin candidates in most years.

DISTRICT 17: CLAY-NORTH KANSAS CITY.  Pop 313,555.  O 56.0%, D 57.7%.  You can't keep Kansas City together as neatly as you can for St. Louis, because it spans four counties, with a couple enclaves, so I didn't sweat the splitting of KC that much- no other towns are split around here at least.  This district is all of Clay County (which includes much of the city) and the northern bit of Jackson, with a strip running down the Missouri-Kansas border in Kansas City to help 18 be minority-majority.  Most of KC is actually in 18, but technically downtown is here.  Lean D.

DISTRICT 18: KANSAS CITY CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  Pop 312,478.  O 72.7%, D 74.8%.  47W/40B.  Almost black-plurality by total population, but not quite.  It's almost entirely KC, with a few adjoining towns- Grandview and Raytown in Jackson, Belton and Raymore in Cass. Safe D.

DISTRICT 19: INDEPENDENCE-EAST JACKSON.  Pop 312,557.  O 46.7%, D 50.6%.  Entirely within Jackson, dominated by Independence but including several other suburbs and a small part of KC as well.  Lean R.

One black-majority (2), one black-plurality but only by total population (1), one min-maj (18).

4 Safe D
1 Lean D
2 Tossup
4 Lean R
8 Safe R

[traininthedistance]

Just want to say that I'll get back to this eventually.  Burnout plus being busier in real life means this project has gone on the back burner, but I still intend to finish it.  Um... before the year is out, I hope.