Whats the point? Cruz will get crushed in tge general anyway under any of those senerios. Trump will essentially campaign against the gop thus helping Hillary prob run some sort of 3rd party campaign . Cruz will be served up as a sacrificial lamb. Funny thing is hes so stupid not to see it coming.
BTW Trump supporters are more likely to vote for Hillary than Cruzs small far right base. The Gop is walking into a trap if Ted Cruz wins by some sort of convention trick.
Well, the point is that, while he is still unlikely to win, Cruz does seem likely to do several percentage points better than trump, which would probably be enough to keep the Senate, keep Scalia's SCOTUS seat vacant, and try to do this all right 4 years from now. You gotta work with the cards you're dealt. We can't go back in time, put a muzzle on Chris Christie (like a dog!), and give Rubio the nomination. Doesn't work that way.
In terms of the original post, I agree with your 80-90% that trump won't get 1237 through the voting, but he does have one final card left to play, which is that some of the territorial/Pennsylvanian uncommitted delegates will be sympathetic to him, and we don't know how many. That'll give him a final delegate boost. I don't know if it'll be enough to take him over 1237 on the first ballot (I personally doubt it), but I would say the odds right now are more 60-70% range than 80-90%.
Also, whoever talked about Montana: judging by Idahoan results trump does probably have an outside shot here (though Cruz is still favored, even in the three-way). He'd be doomed in a two-way race, so hopefully Cruz's effort to get Kasich off the ballot there will both be successful and not get too much bad blood between them.
What makes you think Rubio would have done better? He's an 18 year old running for president of the College Republicans in 1987, trapped in the body of a 45 year old man in 2016.
His platform is the same one voters rejected in 2012, but he doesn't go so far as to use the word "self-deport."
