Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[colincb]

Ralston still sounds skeptical that Democrat can get the Clark Freiwal to 35K, just saying that it seems "possible". Since they are at 21.5K with 6 days to go, they'd need to add 2250 every day to get there. This seems pretty attainable to me given that week 2 has generally better numbers for Democrats. Am I missing something?

Saying it's possible doesn't really sound skeptical...

I think Ralston's being conservative on the 35K benchmark for Clark (Las Vegas) given that the second week of early voting is usually 25% higher and that 40K is achievable given the current pace. May not happen until Friday which is by far the biggest day historically, but seems to be in reach. I'm actually feeling bullish on NV compared to any other possible flip.

[colincb]

40K Clark firewall seems more likely than a 35K one at this point. Almost half the early votes will come in the next 5 days.

[colincb]

Turnout appears to be down or flat in the couple rurals that have reported in Nevada thus far.

Do you have the link to the week 2 NV SOS chart?

Week 2:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

NV SOS with links to current and historical results:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics

.

[colincb]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

I

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

No, because a) assume NPAs won’t go big for Rs like they did in 2016 and b) Republicans showed up in large numbers on ED in 2016 and we don’t know what’s going to happen this year.

Somewhat interestingly in the 2 StPetePolls that includes "already voted"
The St Pete Poll taken Oct 30-31
"Already voted"
Nelson: 53%,
Scott: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 45%
Scott: 50%

The St Pete Poll taken Nov 1-2
"Already voted"
Nelson: 51%,
Scott: 47.5%  

"Plan to vote"
Nelson: 43%
Scott: 51%

-----------
The Nov 1-2 also included Gov Numbers
The St Pete Poll taken Nov1-2
"Already voted"
Gillum: 52%,
DeSantis: 45%  

"Plan to vote"
Gillum: 43%
DeSantis: 48%


Not sure what to make of these numbers.... some seem a bit iffy.  But it at least gives some "Already Voted" numbers to compare to the Early voting totals to see how much potential crossover/ or Ind vote the Dems are getting.  (Each poll included a little over 2,000 respondents... and the poll was automated).

I'm late to the FL discussion, but assuming an 80% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018, what % of the electorate has voted and what % is left? What is the effect if it's a 75% or 85% of 2016 total FL vote in 2018?

[colincb]

The hype built up around Beto is unfortunate given the likely outcome. Wish people were more grounded instead of getting so emotionally involved just makes the end result even harder on people.

My sentiments exactly. A lot of people will be having a breakdown on here in just two days, once Cruz is projected as the victor.

That's nonsense.