colincb
Rookie
Posts: 60
Political Matrix
E: -0.77, S: -2.43
|
 |
« on: September 11, 2012, 02:49:34 AM » |
|
The Kimball poll is flawed with 48% of responses from the 60+ age cohort vs 15% in each of the last 2 presidential elections and with only 12% from the 18-39 cohorts which should be 35-40% of the sample. Both Obama and Warren get their worst favorability ratings in the youngest cohorts in this poll which should be their best and which is contrary to other polling(and 2008 results for Obama. IOW, highly suspect poll.
The Dems won by +25-26% in each of the last two presidential elections and if Obama gets in that ballpark again, then Brown is likely toast barring some yet-to-be committed gaffe by Warren. I suspect Obama is up 20+ margin currently if a better sampling was done (which would be better than 2008 at the same point) and that Warren is up slightly within the MOE. Could just be a bounce for Warren and the race is certainly winnable for Brown, but if I had to pick a winner, it would be Warren in a tight race.
|
