MA: Boston Herald/UMass-Lowell: Warren extends lead

[colincb]

It's her race to lose.

- Warren's got a better message in MA being against Wall Steet rather than being a favorite son of Wall Street

- Warren's an active campaigner, good speaker, and she's got activists coming out of the woodwork to oust Brown. Puritan guilt no doubt, for having screwed up in the special election in January 2010. Being a Harvard professor isn't a liability in a state where education is a very big business.

- The Tea Party brand is toxic in MA and it's guilt by association for Brown.

- While the economy's not great, it's better than most of the country and housing prices are starting to rise again.

- Obama is well liked and will beat Romney by 15% (they had him) and Gingrich by 25% or more. It's a presidential election and there will be 800,000 more votes coming predominantly from high Democratic areas.

- Brown's not unpopular, but he's below 50%.

- The national party is going to spend big bucks on this race to offset Rove and Wall Street money.

[colincb]

Senator, do whatever's politically necessary for a win.

It's too late to switch parties.

[colincb]

Most of the advantages are in this race are in Warren's favor and Brown's already behind as an incumbent.

Local media will favor Warren on average, but it's not a liberal avalanche despite what the GOP would have you believe.  The GOP party is weak here, but voters regularly vote for GOP governors to balance the Dem-dominated legislature.  However, the 10 member House delegation is all Dem and the Dems have controlled both Senatorships for 30 years until Brown's upset victory in a special election during a GOP tide against a weak opponent.  The trends seem to be going the other way now,  Warren's a better candidate than Coakley was,  Dem machine much stronger than GOP's,  state has a large Dem RV advantage, activists have been showing up in force for Warren to take the seat back, and national GOP is not liked.  Romney's down by over 20 and he's the closest to Obama.  Brown's not a sure loss, but he's behind and most factors going forward seem to work against him.  Maybe he can clobber Warren in debates, but I don't see how he wins otherwise especially if economy continues to improve.