Mr. 47%

[WhyteRain]

I made this exact point a week or so ago with a new thread:

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The defense of Obama was "well, Romney's even less popular".

[WhyteRain]

The national polls are irrelevant. Romney will run up the score in solid red states, but he has virtually no path to 270.

I don't see Romney denies Obama 17 EVs from that lot, given what current polling looks like. Barring major economic downtown, Obama should win re-election.

That's just crazy to say.  I'm not predicting Romney will win, but to say he has no path is wrong.  The internal data of most recent polls has been very bad for Obama.  Top line numbers are almost always the last to change.  The economic fatigue is just now starting to filter into the headline numbers and we're seeing Romney creep up on Obama.

I suppose you could have written the same thing about Reagan in 1980.  His path to victory didn't look so good in July, yet he won 43 states.  Things can change and the polls will follow, not lead.

I agree.  I've said for more than a year that Romney would be the weakest opponent for Obama -- it's why the MSM cleared the path for him by pounding into dust all the "conservative alternatives" -- but if the GOP can keep this election as a "referendum on Obama", then he gets crushed.

[modify:]  Btw, Reagan won 44 states in '80, not 43.

[WhyteRain]

Looking at an election as a referendum on one candidate without contextualization is generally a poor idea.

Don't worry, the MSM will do all it can to distort the facts. 

I always try to remind myself how powerful the MSM is -- how they destroyed two of my "sure-thing" predictions:  One, that Hillary would crush Obama whose 2008 candidacy I considered a joke, and, two, that the Tea Party would crush Romney in the 2012 GOP race.  Instead, the MSM crushed the mighty Clinton Machine and the mighty Tea Party. 

[WhyteRain]

Looking at an election as a referendum on one candidate without contextualization is generally a poor idea.

Don't worry, the MSM will do all it can to distort the facts.  

I always try to remind myself how powerful the MSM is -- how they destroyed two of my "sure-thing" predictions:  One, that Hillary would crush Obama whose 2008 candidacy I considered a joke, and, two, that the Tea Party would crush Romney in the 2012 GOP race.  Instead, the MSM crushed the mighty Clinton Machine and the mighty Tea Party.  

So the "MSM" serves as your bogeyman whenever your predictions go wrong?

No.