Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Yank2133]

Also, it's entirely possible that McCain is just ready to come back, and it doesn't necessarily directly indicate McConnell's whip count. He presumably likes his job, and one would assume that he would try to make it back as soon as he were able. McCain isn't the type that is forced into doing things. I think a passing MTP vote has a greater chance now, but my prediction is that a MTP vote still fails.

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Anyway, I still think McCain votes yes on this. But I do wonder about Murkowski, the bill hasn't changed at all and she has no reason to fear McConnell, who left her out to dry in 2010 after she lost the primary.

McConnell went a step further in 2010. He not only endorsed Miller and told Murkowski to give up, he also stripped her of her position as Vice-Chair right after her loss. If I were Murkowski, I would hold a grudge.

I don't expect her to hold a grudge, but she should feel as if she doesn't owe McConnell anything.

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Yeah, I just don't see it unless something changes dramatically in the next 10-15 hours or so. Collins seems to be hell-bent against either bill. Rand is only going to vote for straight repeal, which I doubt is on the table, and Moran seems to be in the same boat as Rand. That is three "nos" right there and  if that happens I can see everyone else jumping ship.

The GOP is stubborn and don't seem to have the brains to know when to fold, but the math doesn't seem to be there.

[Yank2133]

The GOP is incredibly stupid.

They won't agree to a bill and all they will have done is cause premiums to spike by repealing the mandate.

They will own this and they won't be able to talk their way out of it.

[Yank2133]

Regardless of whatever happens today, I really hope this entire debacle puts to rest McConnell being some sort of strategic genius.

The skinny repeal is the dumbest idea that they have come up with, and that includes the Medicaid cuts.

[Yank2133]

It doesn't look like they intend to actually sign a skinny repeal into law though. They just really need to pass something that they can bring to a conference with the House so that they have some kind of starting point to work out a joint bill.

The thing is they aren't going to agree to a bill and insurance companies are going to revise their premiums outlooks for 2018 because of the uncertainty.

Whether this becomes law or not, it is going to blow up the individual markets.

[Yank2133]

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This what Mitch McConnell has reduced the senate to.

[Yank2133]

So their choices literally are: total repeal, get 60 voted for BRCA or AHCA, or just let people not have insurance? but that might need 60 votes, too..

Skinny repeal is where they are headed for.

[Yank2133]

So their choices literally are: total repeal, get 60 voted for BRCA or AHCA, or just let people not have insurance? but that might need 60 votes, too..

Skinny repeal is where they are headed for.

Skinny repeal will destroy and destabilize the insurance companies

I know.

It may be the worst choice politically, because that is a premium hike on everyone. Senators are being willfully ignorant if they think they can vote yes on that and not be held responsible for the consequences.

[Yank2133]

So their choices literally are: total repeal, get 60 voted for BRCA or AHCA, or just let people not have insurance? but that might need 60 votes, too..

Skinny repeal is where they are headed for.

Skinny repeal will destroy and destabilize the insurance companies

I know.

It may be the worst choice politically, because that is a premium hike on everyone. Senators are being willfully ignorant if they think they can vote yes on that and not be held responsible for the consequences.

If people are mad about the rate hikes, they'll reply with "we gave you the freedom not to have health insurance anymore!"

They can try, but it won't work.

Republicans just don't understand people's feelings on health insurance. People don't give a **** about freedom or even choice, it is about security that is affordable.

[Yank2133]

If only McGinty or Feingold had won.

Bernie would have coattailed McGinty to victory. Sestak probably would have won in spite of Hillary. But the establishment got their way in both primaries, and that could make the difference in whether ObamaCare survives.

lol

This makes zero sense, Bernie lost the PA primary to Hillary by 12 points.

[Yank2133]

If only McGinty or Feingold had won.

Bernie would have coattailed McGinty to victory. Sestak probably would have won in spite of Hillary. But the establishment got their way in both primaries, and that could make the difference in whether ObamaCare survives.

lol

This makes zero sense, Bernie lost the PA primary to Hillary by 12 points.

Irrelevant he would have done better in rural areas compared to Clinton though his Sestak comment is much more accurate

And he would have done worse in the suburbs and the cities then Clinton.

There is no evidence of Bernie winning PA, now if you want to argue MI....go ahead.

[Yank2133]

Meh...I called it months ago. ACA is done. There are no moderate Republicans.

Time for Democrats to move onto single-payer

It appears that if the "skinny repeal" just takes people off the hook, it would basically be a 10% repeal and ruin the insurance markets and GOP would be blamed. It would be a lose-lose-lose "feel good" half-measure....it might not even be a 50 vote option.

Yup.

It is completely short-sighted and a dumb decision. The GOP would basically be trading in a 10% cut in exchange for destruction of individual markets and complete ownership of the outcome.

To make matters worse, the base doesn't care that much about the ACA anymore.

[Yank2133]

God, the left can be so stupid.

[Yank2133]

Lol. Now democrats and republicans have to openly despise each other?

Yeah, it is ridiculous.

Obama's best friend in the senate was ****ing Tom Coburn, Ted Kennedy was buddies with Orin Hatch. This isn't something to flip out about.

[Yank2133]

Remember when all these Republicans voted for a clean repeal, knowing that Obama would save them? Good times

Exposed as the frauds they were.

[Yank2133]

Cassidy voted yes, lol! What about the Kimmel test?

Not enough is made about what a fraud this asshole is.

[Yank2133]

Heller has an amendment to "express the sense of the Senate that Medicaid expansion is a priority."

That it is to be preserved? Maybe that's the way he gets on board.

He is trying to have it both ways.

He is getting the Blanche treatment next year.

[Yank2133]

CBO scored "skinny" repeal...

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/890359137531551744

16 million uninsured, 20% increase in premiums each year.

lol

Lets pass this sh**t!

[Yank2133]

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Eat sh**t, Dean Heller.

[Yank2133]

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There will be no conference, house will vote immediately on skinny repeal. Senators who vote for this are going to get played.

[Yank2133]

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There will be no conference, house will vote immediately on skinny repeal. Senators who vote this are going to get played.

They're reactions will be fun to watch, thats for sure.

It is going to be brutal for guys like Heller and Portman.

[Yank2133]

Oh boy.

[Yank2133]

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I thought McCain was all about the process?

[Yank2133]

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Kick millions off insurance and cut taxes for the rich



Seriously, this is one of the reasons I left the GOP. Twisted sh#t like this...

The thing is they aren't even cutting that much taxes. All they have accomplished is pissing off everyone.

If I am a senator, I would be calling for McConnell's head, he really ed this up.

[Yank2133]

This isnt exactly how Dana Bash described it. Graham said he was a no if Ryan doesnt promise he wont put Skinny Repeal up for a vote.

Yeah, the guy who tweeted this misstated what Bash was saying.

It still chickensh**t though.

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They actually don't like him, but they respect him as a strategist. But this episode should take some shine off of McConnell. He is an excellent opposition leader, but he is not good as the majority leader.

I mean this sh**tshow would never happen under Harry Reid.

[Yank2133]

This would be the dumbest possible move for Congressional Republicans if they do pass a "skinny repeal". It doesn't repeal Obamacare, ensures higher costs, increases the likelihood of a death spiral, and places any blame for healthcare problems on themselves.

Also doesn't cut taxes except the Medical Device Tax.

Also doesn't cut Medicaid.

According to reports of recent drafts, it doesn't even repeal the medical device tax.

So what the hell is gonna be in this? Just a mandate repeal?

Pretty much.

The funny thing is that this is going to backfire. You repeal the mandate and claim you "repealed" Obamacare. But what the hell can you say next year when people lose coverage and there is 20% premium hike?