Trumpcare Megathread: It's dead (for now)

[Yank2133]

Moran does not surprise me. He had been hearing from rural Kansas and I mentioned a couple of pages back he was a potential vote to look at it. Lee surprises me though.

Moran, from what I know of his concerns, is a hard no if he came out. It's not that the bill is too liberal or whatever. He is more worried about Kansas hospitals.

TrumpCare is probably dead if they stick to their guns.

It's actually kind of admirable of Moran to be so concerned for his constituents.

Sam Brownback proved there is no electoral price to be paid in Kansas for running your state into the ground.

Yeah, I have to give Moran some credit here.  The other no's are either against it for political reasons (Heller's senate race and Collins potential gubernatorial run) or ideologically reasons (Lee and Paul).  Moran seems to be the only one concerned about the impact on the people of his state.

[Yank2133]

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Win at all cost.

[Yank2133]

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Delusional.

[Yank2133]

Mitch wants to show the base a body.

[Yank2133]

I will now like to say I told you so: I predicted this all along and have done so since November. As I said now, we move onto this "failed" vote of a straight up repeal. Unless something magical happens between now and then, ObamaCare is now the law of the land and Schumer now holds the trump cards in negotiations.

Also a straight up repeal, I believe, requires 60 votes. Even if it didn't, it doesn't have 50 votes.  

You sure about that?...I don't exactly see any moderates coming out with statements.

It's like 11 at night and McConnell just put this statement out half an hour ago. There is a 0% chance this comes at all close to passing. I doubt it even comes to a vote.

All it takes is 50 votes and the vote is in 2 days

They will be lucky to get 30.

[Yank2133]

Also, I am not even sure they can do a clean repeal under reconciliation. If I am correct, then they need 60, which means this thing is deader then Kelsey's nuts.

[Yank2133]

I will now like to say I told you so: I predicted this all along and have done so since November. As I said now, we move onto this "failed" vote of a straight up repeal. Unless something magical happens between now and then, ObamaCare is now the law of the land and Schumer now holds the trump cards in negotiations.

Also a straight up repeal, I believe, requires 60 votes. Even if it didn't, it doesn't have 50 votes.  

You sure about that?...I don't exactly see any moderates coming out with statements.

It's like 11 at night and McConnell just put this statement out half an hour ago. There is a 0% chance this comes at all close to passing. I doubt it even comes to a vote.

All it takes is 50 votes and the vote is in 2 days

They will be lucky to get 30.

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Easy to vote yes when you know the President would veto it.

[Yank2133]

This whole thing sounds to me like a set up to repeal ACA then put the pressure on Democrats to force them to the table to vote for whatever garbage the Republicans come up with.

This makes zero sense.

If the GOP repeal the ACA, they own the consequence. There is no reason for Democrats to bail them out.

[Yank2133]

This whole thing sounds to me like a set up to repeal ACA then put the pressure on Democrats to force them to the table to vote for whatever garbage the Republicans come up with.

This makes zero sense.

If the GOP repeal the ACA, they own the consequence. There is no reason for Democrats to bail them out.

I think the point is the two year delay. Would Democrats really go into next year's midterms saying "Obamacare expires in eight months but we have nothing to say about what we want to replace it until we get the White House in (we hope) 26 months."

Also would have the added benefit of forcing Republicans to actually talk about and focus on their 'replace' proposals before the 2018 midterms rather than be able to lazily bang on about 'repealing' without proposing replacements. The previous system was not popular or effient at all. No politician is going to be able to face the electorate in 16 months time, 8 months before Obamacare would end, without talking seriously about what they intend to replace it.

I expect that for that very reason this bill won't pass. However I think it really should, its in Republicans' best interests. If they don't then Dems will just pass Single payer next chance they get and that will be it.

The Democrats will go into the mid-terms just blaming the GOP for every problem that results from this bill passage. 32 million will lose coverage and premiums will double and it will be the GOP's fault.

This is how healthcare politics work in this country. You make a change to the system, then you own the entire thing. Democrats learned this in 2010, and Republicans are fooling themselves if they don't think the same will happen.

And the GOP won't get serious about reform because half of them don't believe the government should be involve in healthcare in the first place.

[Yank2133]

Collins is also a no.

This thing is dead at the moment with McCain being out.

[Yank2133]

Trump is on tv talking gibberish.

[Yank2133]

Trump is on tv talking gibberish.

Details?

Talking about letting aca fail and will blame democrats.

He is an utter fool.

[Yank2133]

Senator Moron of Kansas will vote Yes to repeal

Lol at anyone who thought he cared about his voters

Murkowski says she's "not there yet", so who even knows anymore

Murkowski is a no.

[Yank2133]

Senator Moron of Kansas will vote Yes to repeal

Lol at anyone who thought he cared about his voters

Murkowski says she's "not there yet", so who even knows anymore

Murkowski is a no.

Any word yet from Heller and all the others?

No word yet and it doesn't matter since 3 R's are against it.

[Yank2133]

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/18/politics/trump-health-care-failure/index.html

Lmao!

[Yank2133]

Breaking: The Senate parliamentarian has determined that some provisions violate the Byrd rule, making them impermissible under reconciliation.

https://www.budget.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Background%20on%20Byrd%20Rule%20decisions_7.21%5B1%5D.pdf

Including the abortion funding prohibition and defunding Planned Parenthood. It's not going to pass in the house without that.

Yeah, this healthcare bill has had nine lives.....but it is going to be really hard to get this through the house with this provision being taking out.

[Yank2133]

McConnell has turned the Senate into goddamn mickey mouse operation.

Can't even blame Trump for this ****show.

[Yank2133]

Breaking: McCain WILL be returning to the Senate tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/889652134655950849

This means the repeal will pass

No,  it means a motion to proceed on debating the bill will proceed.

You guys really have to wake up...the Republican party is not rational anymore. The MTP will pass, McTurtle will bribe off the remaining Senators and that'll be the end of the ACA. It's obvious to anyone who subscribes to realism what's going on here. Everyone keeps underestimating Trump and the GOP. The fact that clowns like Capito, Heller, Portman, etc... havent released any statements should tell you how this is going to end.

It is funny how you talk about reality when you are the one who flips every five minute about the bill passing or failing.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

If this were the case, McConnell would have passed this bill ages ago.

Republicans are craven, but they also care a hell of a lot more about self preservation. And all these potential payoffs and deals won't offset the Medicaid cuts, this 200 billion McConnell is dangling is pennies.

It could pass, but I think some of you are jumping the gun way to prematurely.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

If this were the case, McConnell would have passed this bill ages ago.

Republicans are craven, but they also care a hell of a lot more about self preservation. And all these potential payoffs and deals won't offset the Medicaid cuts, this 200 billion McConnell is dangling is pennies.

It could pass, but I think some of you are jumping the gun way to prematurely.

The GOP is very strategic. They are intentionally trying to confuse everyone to rush it through. It's all a shell game. The GOP is on a high where they look at what they've gotten away with for the last 20 years and the fact they control 34 state legislatures, and all 3 branches of government and they simply think they can pass this, then just blatantly lie about it to the public, and they'll just get away with like they got away with lying about the Iraq War and basically ruining Obama's presidency.

If youve ever wondered what it would be like to have Enron run the country...this is it. These are craven sociopaths who think to themselves: ''Eh...my constituency are dumb as hell, I'll just lie to them and get away with it yet again. Just bring up Pelosi or tell em the Dems will take your guns''

This entire episode has destroyed the narrative of the GOP being strategic. This isn't some machiavellian scheme, McConnell and co. are throwing sh**t to the wall and seeing what sticks, because every other avenue they have tried to get to 50 votes has failed.

[Yank2133]

It's all theater. It's going to pass.

RIP America.

MotionToProceed =/= Passing healthcare bill

Even if the senate succeeds in starting debate, its not happening tomorrow.

Do you really they'd be flying McCain back to DC if his vote didn't mean the difference in passing or failing?

Heller and Collins will vote no, everyone else will be bought off, Pence will break the tie, the House will pass as is (even if they get rid of Planned Parenthood defunding), Trump will sign, the insurance market will collapse, millions will lose coverage, tens of thousands will die, and all the Trump supporters who rely on Obamacare will just blame Democrats anyway somehow.

I hope everyone who for whatever reason failed to vote for Hillary on 11/8 is happy. (Who am I kidding - they are.)

Jesus christ, people.

They aren't voting on a bill tomorrow, it is MTP.

We all know that there will be some time for debate and grandstanding before the votes on the bill. You're not informing us of anything.

The bill is going to pass. McConnell wouldn't go through all this theater only to have the repeal effort fail.

McConnell doesn't even know if he has 50, because the caucus doesn't even know what the bill looks like.

This is just like with the Tuesday group. There are no GOP moderates. The GOP is a cult who at the end of the day will do as their told.

This is why Democrats have got to stop trying to be bipartisan and instead club the Republican party into submission. Dems are still on the sidelines writing McConnell letters about how they can come together to fix Obamacare while Mitch and Paul are probably laughing their asses off at the letter.

If this were the case, McConnell would have passed this bill ages ago.

Republicans are craven, but they also care a hell of a lot more about self preservation. And all these potential payoffs and deals won't offset the Medicaid cuts, this 200 billion McConnell is dangling is pennies.

It could pass, but I think some of you are jumping the gun way to prematurely.

The GOP is very strategic. They are intentionally trying to confuse everyone to rush it through. It's all a shell game. The GOP is on a high where they look at what they've gotten away with for the last 20 years and the fact they control 34 state legislatures, and all 3 branches of government and they simply think they can pass this, then just blatantly lie about it to the public, and they'll just get away with like they got away with lying about the Iraq War and basically ruining Obama's presidency.

If youve ever wondered what it would be like to have Enron run the country...this is it. These are craven sociopaths who think to themselves: ''Eh...my constituency are dumb as hell, I'll just lie to them and get away with it yet again. Just bring up Pelosi or tell em the Dems will take your guns''

This entire episode has destroyed the narrative of the GOP being strategic. This isn't some machiavellian scheme, McConnell and co. are throwing sh**t to the wall and seeing what sticks, because every other avenue they have tried to get to 50 votes has failed.

One of McConnell's well known strategies is to keep forcing votes until it pressures the no's to change. What he's doing is what he's always done to reign in on people who might have doubts. Anyway this is his plan:

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The problem is the $100B is pennies and the moderates know this.

[Yank2133]

The problem is the $100B is pennies and the moderates know this.

Your wrongly assuming the moderates care. Portman, Capito, Murkowski will all fold eventually. They have until September 17th to use reconciliation. Trump and the sociopathic GOP will just threaten them day after day until the bill is passed while McConnell will just keep holding vote after vote till he chips away until he gets a yes. Mitch has already been caught lying to the Senators about the effects of the bill and they all eventually got on board in the end anyway.

These arent principled or intelligent people. They're all just cucks bought and paid for by donors who think Koch and Co. can bail me out come election time.

Of course they care, because the money in the long-run won't cover up for the cuts and they know this.

[Yank2133]

Also, it's entirely possible that McCain is just ready to come back, and it doesn't necessarily directly indicate McConnell's whip count. He presumably likes his job, and one would assume that he would try to make it back as soon as he were able. McCain isn't the type that is forced into doing things. I think a passing MTP vote has a greater chance now, but my prediction is that a MTP vote still fails.

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Anyway, I still think McCain votes yes on this. But I do wonder about Murkowski, the bill hasn't changed at all and she has no reason to fear McConnell, who left her out to dry in 2010 after she lost the primary.