My best idea would be this:
Bill Clinton/Al Gore (D)*: 439 EV; 55% of the PVPat Buchanan/Ron Paul (R): 99 EV; 39% of the PVDick Lamm/Ted Weil (Ref): 0 EV; 6% of the PVI do not think Buchanan would have allowed a good number of Republicans to be his running-mate. I would guess his short-list would have been Congressman Paul, Alan Keyes, Senator Rod Grams and, perhaps, some paleoconservative writer. The election would be a great one, no doubt, as both major party candidates are highly intelligent and interested in serious policy discussion. Buchanan would make a lot of gaffes in regard to "racial make-up" in the United States and alienate a bunch of Republicans from voting.
Buchanan's campaign would have focused on two issues: opposition to nation building and assaulting the "culture of decadence" in the Clinton White House. Neither of these issues would have taken fire in the campaign since in 1996 no one cared about nation building misadventures and Dole's own attacks on Travelgate, Whitewater and Nannygate made no impact on the race. Dole ended a bunch of his ads with a fairly strong statement, "Does the truth matter to you?" and the votes in 1996 showed that people felt that Clinton had been truthful enough with them and that they liked the prosperity his administration seemed to have ushered in. As much as I respect Pat Buchanan his campaign would have been a disaster and he would have lost badly.
Buchanan's candidacy would have depressed Republican turnout on election day. In the United States Senate races this probably would mean that Mark Warner would best Senator John Warner in Virginia, Tom Bruggere tops Gordon Smith in Oregon, Tom Strickland defeats Wayne Allard in Colorado, Joe Brennan out paces Susan Collins in Maine. Win Bryant manages to defeat Tim Hutchinson in Arkansas and Ben Nelson defeats Chuck Hagel in Nebraska. The Democrats would have staved off further losses in the Senate and may well have taken the chamber in the 1998 midterm elections. Assuming George W. Bush "wins" the office of president in 2000 a larger Democratic majority in the United States Senate may well have trimmed his tax cut even further then they did IRL and perhaps stalled war talk in 2002 and 2003.
Also, with Mark Warner as a United States Senator in 1997 he may well have been Gore's running-mate in 2000 and that possibly could have changed the outcome of that race. A popular Senator Warner on the ticket may have made up the 8-poin deficit in Virginia that election. Also, if Warner was the VP nominee in 2000 on a losing Gore/Warner ticket he would have been the front-runner against President Bush in 2004.
