Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

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What a ing circus, this is a joke. The executive is full of (confirmed) corrupt politicians and criminals (and congress...). They don't care if Lula is guilty or not about that apartment thing, they only care to eliminate him, because they know that if he runs, he wins.

This is beyond pathetic.


Well, at leas I have money on a brazilian fund, and everyone knows that this is the best thing that could happen to brazilian stocks (full of sh**tty companies that depends on right wing politicians that will not liberate the market, but will deteriorate social programs like Bolsa Familia)

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I read in elpais.es that they asked three experts about Favreto's competences (didn't mention who), and the three said that he had the power to order Lula's release.

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Could we say that Marina is similar to the Green Liberal Party of Switzerland?

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A very dark and evil part of me hopes that Bolsonaro wins solely to trigger the libz, but let's not forget all the things Bolsonaro said about women, blacks and LGBT people lmao, he's pretty scummy. I hope Bolsonaro recovers and I certainly don't wish death on anyone but Bolsonaro doesn't strike me as someone I'd want in charge. There are enough ''neoliberal'' candidates out there I suppose (and I'm not even sure whether we can fully trust Bolsonaro when it comes to free market reforms).

I don't really care about what they think, but I listened that some family offices in Brazil prefer Haddad over Bolsonaro. They see Haddad as a moderate inside PP and think that his rethoric will moderate once elected. They see Bolsonaro as a pandora's box, specially because his history. But obviously their favorite is Alckmin.

Bolsonaro is scum

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From what I understand, Gomes and Haddad are pretty similar and both are running under similar platforms. From what I know both are clean, although PT (Haddad's party) had a trouble history with corruption, unlike PDT, although PT is much bigger. Many of the Brazilians that I know like both and were going to vote to the one that has the highest chance to get into the runoff. I listened that Gomes did really good in the debates but once the campaign started Haddad started to do well (unlike Gomez, he isn't known in the Northeast, which is where the left is stronger).

Also both are running under a leftist platform, although is expected that once elected they could moderate their stances. Many (painful) fiscal reforms are needed in Brazil and I think that they understand that.

Marina is basically plain vanilla, she is not exciting, and she has a long history of flip-floping from what I heard.

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This is a good article on Gomes:

https://medium.com/@angrysigh/the-enfant-terrible-90eaeb1658c0

It goes without saying though, that he'd be a better candidate than Haddad, who has no appeal to the middle class, little respect or clout in the NE (where the left need high turnout) and in general is a screw up. He completely flamed out in his last mayoral elections against a right wing cretin, for example.

I'm not expert at all in Brazilian politics, but I think that is too harsh on Haddad. He lost badly in 2016, but that was in a time that the PT brand was toxic and nobody was capable of fight against that. I friend from Sao Paulo (who is undecided between Ciro and Haddad) told me that he was actually a good mayor and make tangible things. He didn't vote for Haddad the first time (he is an anomaly, comes from a right wing family and works in investment banking but has drifted to the left due to social issues). He is unkown in the NE because he started in the south and he wasn't in the first line but unlike many in PT isn't involved in corruption cases.

Though Ciro is a great politician, but the choice is not terrible, I really think that on the left Brazilians have good alternatives.

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Is there any good demographic polling for the presidential race? I'm curious how the various candidates do among different groups (gender, age, education, religion, income, etc)

Income

2 minimum wages or less

Haddad - 20%
Bolsonaro - 19%
Ciro - 13%
Alckmin - 10%
Marina - 9%

2 - 5 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 34%
Haddad - 14%
Ciro - 14%
Alckmin - 9%
Marina - 6%

5 - 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 15%
Amoêdo - 6%
Alckmin - 6%
Alvaro - 5%
Marina - 3%

more than 10 minimum wages

Bolsonaro - 40%
Haddad - 15%
Ciro - 11%
Amoêdo - 9%
Alckmin - 7%
Alvaro - 2%
Marina - 1%

The key factor IMO

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New poll from DataPoder 360

Results (In portuguese)




Run-off




Breakdown run-off between Bolsonaro and Haddad
(By sex, age, education*, family income** and region)



*não foi à escola= didn't go to school, fundamental=elementary school, medio=high school
**sem renda fixa=without fixed income, SM=salário mínimo=minumum wage

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Today were several rallies throughout Brazil against Bolsonaro under the banner Ele Nao (Not him). A majority of participants were women, although it was pretty diverse.

Some footage
Salvador (largest city in the Northeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FtuMeHS7EcU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMCDzhDDWx8

Vitoria (Southeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-67qnMek6M

Florianopolis (South)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lA_s2yXRE88
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnsOb1ni6z0

Sao Paulo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJCZCwSNW6Y

Rio de Janeiro
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgWzvXRskXQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTkDUnWspug

Fortaleza (Northeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYf8ziB_Mpw

Curitiba (South)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3YeVB4QG6cw

Manaus (Amazonas)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW8lt6fm-_c

Recife (Northeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeA5JbThi0M

Belo Horizonte (Southeast)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iyDCAZvWpa0

Porto Alegre (South). The great band Francisco el Hombre playing in the rally
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzCcCwJhtmQ

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Who people wouldn't vote for

Marina 28% (-4)

Surprisingly high, I thought she's rather uncontroversial and centrist.

I know some on the left still hold a grudge against her for endorsing Aécio Neves over Dilmain 2014. And the right probably hates her because...she’s an environmentalist or something? Idk about that.

There are definitely people who won't vote for her because she's black.

Ah, yes, that too.

She is also a conservative evangelical and people don't know her true stances on social issues. She is against same-sex marriage, drug legalization (including weed), abortion and favors the option of schools to teach creationism as a scientific theory. Off course apparently she has changed her mind on some issues but all she talks is about "national referendum" on these issues without saying what she believes. Also many people don't like the way she has behaved with the PT.

She is not trusted my many people. She is not uncontroversial.

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According to what Globo is saying, only 11% of the vote for president in the southeast has been counted, that means a lot of pro Bolsonaro vote could still come if that's right. But there's also a big share of northeastern votes that still haven't been counted, so this is probably going to the second round.

There's still nothing from São Paulo or Minas Gerais.

How are you guys seeing results by state ?

https://placar.eleicoes.uol.com.br/2018/1turno/presidente-por-estado/

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South almost fully counted

Results (from South)
Parana (96% counted)
JAIR BOLSONARO PSL           57,14%
FERNANDO HADDAD PT         19,41%
CIRO GOMES PDT                  8,35%
ALVARO DIAS PODE               5,24%
GERALDO ALCKMIN PSDB       3,57%

Rio Grande do Sul (90%)
JAIR BOLSONARO PSL            53,05%
FERNANDO HADDAD PT          22,39%
CIRO GOMES PDT                  11,42%
GERALDO ALCKMIN PSDB       5,35%
JOÃO AMOÊDO NOVO             3,01%

Santa Catarina (79%)
JAIR BOLSONARO PSL           65,82%
FERNANDO HADDAD PT        14,99%
CIRO GOMES PDT                 6,73%
JOÃO AMOÊDO NOVO           4,14%
GERALDO ALCKMIN PSDB     3,86%

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Result are pretty stable now:

Bolsonaro            46.06%
Haddad               29.24%
Gomes                12.47%
Alckmin               4.76%
Amoedo               2.5%
Daciolo                1.26%
Meireles              1.20%
Silva                   1.00%

Both Bolsonaro and Haddad outperformed the exit poll and the last Ipobe. The later was 41% Bolsonaro, 25% Haddad, 13% Gomes (of valid votes). What we saw in the election was the total collapse of Alckmin and Marina, and probably most of the votes of the first went to Bolsonaro, meanwhile Marina's voters probably were to Haddad. Gomez just suffered a small underperformed but was under the margin of error probably.

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Also, there is a (very) small chance that Bolsonaro ends under 46%, because most of the vote that is coming right now is over 60% Haddad. It not much, but we will see (currently Bolsonaro is at 46.05%)

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From last Ibope

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Anybody able to explain the geographic patterns of the results? I find interesting how well Bolsonaro did in the big cities.

This is Latin America, politics is still highly correlated with income. Bolsonaro did very welll in the wealthiest states meanwhile Haddad had very good results in the Northeast, which is the poorest part of the country.

The right outperforms in the LatAm's big cities because is where most of the big industries are located. High middle class and high class are overrepresented in the big cities, and they are Bolsonaro's base right now.

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Anyone knows if o profeta Daciolo will support one of the candidates in the runoff? As he didn't received 50% of the vote like he said I think his natural support is Bolsonaro but he accused him in the campaign of being part of the new world order and the Illuminatis, so maybe he can keep his campaign in the second round.

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I just bought 1000$ worth of Brazilian stock. Let’s go Jair!! Time for a TropicalTrumpBump!!

Good to know that you lost money today. I don't know how anyone with some financial knowledge invest money just before an election that the "positive" outcome was already priced.


There is no also good forecast, I don't really know how Bolsonaro can do the pension reform and don't think that Guedes can influence that much. All the markets put their fate not in Bolsonaro, but in Guedes.

Very bad bet, but I am very happy, I hope you lose more.

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I just bought 1000$ worth of Brazilian stock. Let’s go Jair!! Time for a TropicalTrumpBump!!

Good to know that you lost money today. I don't know how anyone with some financial knowledge invest money just before an election that the "positive" outcome was already priced.

Wrong. The real gapped this morning so did the equity market. Brazilian stocks were lower on the close because the US equity market died into the afternoon.

? Despite opening at a higher price the Bovespa soon started to going down and the same happen with the BRL
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBOV:IND
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDBRL:CUR

Although there is relationship with the US stock market, this didn't happen after the first round when the international markets suffered a lot but the brazilian market increased in value. Bolsonaro's wing was already priced, despite a higher opening price.