NC: CDs 1 & 12 struck down

[Vern]

So is that for sure the new map? Also, it would be interesting to see what a map would look like when we gain a CD in 2020.

[Vern]

Yeah, jimrtex, I agree - the split of Bladen County is one the aesthetic points that bugs me the most (putting aside partisan considerations).

The lone Iredell County precinct thats in CD10 is also annoying.

So is that for sure the new map? Also, it would be interesting to see what a map would look like when we gain a CD in 2020.

Assuming the SCOTUS doesn't issue a stay, it should be.

My guess is that in 2020, they add a Democratic seat either in the Triad or by combining the eastern parts of the new CDs 8 and 9 (Fayetteville-Lumberton area). I think with this map in mind, though, the former seems more likely (which would be good news for Alma Adams, who stands to be booted out now).

I live in Guilford, so I hope that they don't make all of Guilford in a Democratic sink hole in 2020. lol.

[Vern]

I believe the right type of Democrat could win both 13 and 6, IMO.  I am looking at the bill and it looks like CD6 has a lot of the eastern side of Greensboro in it, and that area is mostly black. i am adding up all the numbers now to see how Bev did in 2008 in CD6.

[Vern]

Well, I did it and its some interesting results! Bev won the parts of Guilford county in CD6. The results for the CD6 Guilford was: 55-42 for Bev. The overall results for CD6 in 2008 were: 47%-49% for McCrory.

Edit: Upon looking, the old CD6 in 2008 was won by McCrory 58.7% to 38%. That's almost a 10% increase for the Democrats. So it is possible that a Democrat could win the new CD 6

[Vern]

^ The legislature's data actually has Perdue winning CD6 by 1%, but McCrory won CD13 by 2%. That said, I think Perdue has appeal in the VA border counties, Rockingham especially, that will be hard to replicate in non-wave years.


The plaintiffs have until Monday to file any objections they have with the new map.

I wonder where my count was off..