Canada 2006 Swing Ridings

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So I'll start here naming all the seats we should watch. If there are factual errors let me know:

Western Arctic, NWT
Last time around incumbent Liberal Ethel Blondin-Andrew defeated the NDP's Dennis Bevington by 53 votes. This riding is typically economically left-wing, and combined with the Liberal scandal, would translate to a lean to the NDP. However, up there people tend  to vote for the local candidate rather than the parties, and Blondin-Andrew has been seen as representing NWTers well. As long as the NDP puts on a more-than-competent campaign they should win.

Vancouver Centre, BC
This is the race to watch on the Left Coast. Longtime left-leaning Liberal Hedy Fry is facing a challenge from Svend Robinson, who was earier convicted for stealing a diamond ring from an auction house. Robinson remains popular among the left in BC (being the first openly gay MP). The swing towards the NDP might not be great this time, as in the May 2005 provincial election this area was expected to vote NDP but didn't.

Vancouver Kingsway, BC
David Emerson, a popular and influential cabinet member, won by less than 2000 votes last time over the NDP candidate, and this time around the NDP has run a popular Chinese candidate. This is a working-class district and naturally has an NDP tilt to it.

Burnaby New Westminster, BC
In 2004 all three major parties put up a strong showing. At the end the NDP won a razor-thin margin over the Liberals. Current Conservative candidate Marc Dalton is a parachute (carpetbagger) candidate who ran for the Tory nomination in the right-wing district of Maple Ridge/Pitt Meadows/Mission in 2004 who emphasized "Family, Military, Faith" then. That doesn't work well in this socially left-wing district. Economically BNW is divided, and demographically has a rising income (swinging to the Liberals). the current MP is seen as Svend Robinson's protege, and it remains to be seen how that will turn out. This has a mild NDP lean.

North Vancouver, BC
Last time this was a Liberal vs. Tory race, with the Liberals edging out by 2000 votes. The Liberals have their natural problems to solve, but Don Bell has his own problems (He promised to oppose SSM but voted for it). The Tories have run someone socially right-wing who has ties to Focus on the Family, Cindy Silver. North Van is a suburban middle-to-high-income riding, and favours libertarian candidates. This will be a lackluster race, but I can say that as the Tories keep running social conservatives they're hastening Vancouver's image as "San Fran North".

Gotta have lunch now...sorry...

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The main impediment to Conservative success in Greater Vancouver is that they keep running social conservatives. I mean...this is San Franciso North!!! If Stephen Harper wants success he should emphasize more on economic issues to win the suburbs.

Continuing here...

West Vancouver/Sunshine Coast/Sea to Sky, BC
Popular Tory MP John Reynolds is retiring, and this time the Tories are running John Weston, a Harvard-educated fundie (by our standards) economist. West Van is an affluent suburb, and therefore economically conservative. The Sunshine Coast is resource-based NDP-leaning towns (though they are too small to give the NDP much chance here) that went for Reform back in the 90s out of populism. And the Liberals? They have Blair Wilson, who in 2004 lost to Reynolds by just 1700 votes. Will Weston's social conservatism cost his party this seat?

Surrey North, BC
This seat is currently vacant since the late Chuck Cadman, an Independent immensely popular here, died of cancer earlier this year. With Cadman out of the picture, the three parties are seeking this intensely. The NDP has high-profile candidate Penny Priddy. The Tories have *somewhat* gotten their act together and put out David Matta, a novice to politics. And the Liberals? They haven't nominated anyone yet.

Southern Interior, BC
This region is made of blue-collar logging and mining towns, the hippie enclave of Nelson (it has many American draft-dodgers) and the booming city of Kelowna. In 2004, this riding was VERY close (just 700 votes between Tories and NDP). The NDP did well here in the May provincial vote (which could, and COULD, reflect in the federal election). The incumbent Jim Gouk, a Tory, is not running for reelection. The Tories are running Dereck Zeisman, the NDP Alex Atamanenko and the Liberals (not that they have a chance here) Bill Profili.

Nanaimo-Alberni, BC
Last time the Tories won fairly comfortably, but since then they have declined. The NDP has risen somewhat, while many Liberal votes are bleeding away to the NDP. The retirement communities of Parksville and Nanaimo just keep on growing, giving the Tories more support, while blue-collar Port Alberni keeps shrinking in size. This riding probably has a slight Tory edge.

Victoria, BC
YESS!!! MY RIDING!!! Very popular MP David Anderson (Liberal) is not running again. David Mulroney, a no-name lawyer who ran in Saanich-Gulf Islands (my old riding beofore I moved here) for the Liberals, is running for them in Victoria. The NDP has Denise Savoie, a current member of the Victoria City Council. Demographically, this riding is totally urban, with areas of most income levels. This riding therefore has a (ugh!) slight NDP edge.

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Esquimault Juan de Fuca, BC
Last time around many predicted that Keith Martin, who in 2003 (is that correct) changed from Alliance to Liberal, would lose to NDPer Randall Garrison. At the end Martin won by just over 2,500 votes in a tight race, while the Tories, who ran Martin's ex-aide John Koury, performed poorly. Martin is popular and well-liked here, but with the Liberals and Tories falling in BC, we might see the NDP (I think they have Garrison again?) win this.

Edmonton Centre, Alta.
This is just about the only competitive race in Alberta. Edmonton is relatively liberal, but that's where the advantage for incumbent Deputy PM Anne McLellan ends. First elected in '93 beating Reform candidate by twelve votes, she won re-election in '97, 2000 and 2004, earning the affectionate nickname "Landslide Annie". The right has always targeted her, and, up until now, failed. With the Conservatives soaring out here and the Liberals sagging, can Alberta become an ocean of blue come election night?

Denesthe/Missinippi/Churchill River, Sask.
Now that the NDP has largely abandoned its roots in rural Saskatchewan (either because of gerrymandering there or just a shift in attitudes) to focus on blue-collar towns and cities, this riding, which includes everthing north of and including Prince Albert, is fought between incumbent Tory Jeremy Harrison and Liberal Gary Merasty (a former Grand Chief of Aboriginal communities). Will Harrison (who has had a lackluster term) appeal to the large First Nations community (who also are rather pro-NDP)?

Regina-Qu'Appelle, Sask.
This riding went to Tory Andrew Scheener, beating NDPer Lorne Nystrom by less than 1,000 votes. Demographically, this is gerrymandered in favour of the Tories having drawn into it northeastern Regina and a sizeable chunk of the praries. I guess the NDP will work hard to take back a chunk of orange in their cradle. Nystrom is running for the NDP again, and this time he'll have to make sure the Liberals don't siphon left-wing votes from him like they did last time.

Saskatoon Humboldt, Sask.
Last time all three parties came within 450 votes of each other, with independent incumbent Jim Pankiw (a far far right-winger) garnering 7,000 votes. If enough Pankiw votes go for the Tories they will definitely win. IF. We can't assume so, since many people vote for controversial candidates just for protest. Take Pankiw out of the picture and it's back to partisn campaigning.

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Sask.
This riding includes Northwest Regina and parts of the praries. Rookie incumbent Tory Tom Lukiwski squeeked by last time, beating Liberal Gary Anderson by 122 votes. Now Anderson is running for the Liberals again, while NDP support slumped by 4,000 votes between 2000 and 2004 (which was likely due to the provincial NDP government's problemse three main parties are the same as in 2004. It's deja vu for them. It will be a squeeker.