Dem house Majority unlikely my ass

[qochimodo]

First the numbers

Intrade
Democrats to retake the house   34.7%
Obama to win a second term       59.9%

2008
Obama wins the popular vote by              7.2%
House Dems win the popular vote by   10.8%

Now ponder the likely hood of these split ticket scenarios

A.   Obama for President / Republican Congressman
B.   Romney for President / Democratic Congressman

Now I’ll wait….





Now that you’re done laughing at the idea of a split ticket voter in this hyper partisan age you will probably agree with me that of what remains of split ticket voters B is more likely if not much likely than A.

And upon realizing that you now know that on Election Day win or lose house Democrats will receive a greater % of the vote than Obama will (just like they did in 2008)

 Yet right now on this forum and media analysts cling to the pre hyper partisan election patterns of the 80’s and 90’s people like Charlie Cook cite 1984 where Reagan had a landslide and the GOP only picked up 13 seats as evidence that an Obama two point win equals a ten seat pickup for the democrats.

Redistricting helped vulnerable Republicans immensely, but not to the point where their majority can survive losing the popular vote by a couple of points.

Yes Republicans only gained 13 seats in Reagans 1984 landslide win, but that’s because the democrats won the popular vote in the house by 5% and bipartisan elections like that simply have no relevance in forecasting 2012.

All I’m saying is if Obama wins by a point or more the Democrats will retake the house and it’s mind boggling to me that some people are pushing the idea that Obama could landslide and the Democrats could still fall short of a majority.