Washington state megathread

[LastVoter]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nba/2017976982_sacramento14.html
More good news!

[LastVoter]

15,000 no cheesy bread for me
edit:oops

[LastVoter]

What is the relationship between AFL-CIO and New Democrats? I am guessing it would probably be more aligned with progressives.

[LastVoter]

Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare. 

Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.

Something that's supposed to be kept quiet...

[LastVoter]

I don't understand why suburban moderates vote for McKenna over Inslee, Inslee got elected in a relatively conservative district a couple decades ago, while McKenna is towing the Scott Walker line.

[LastVoter]

How is Eyman polling so well?

[LastVoter]

Somebody want's to explain the maps and stuff for the results here?

[LastVoter]

So what does teal blue and red mean on that map?

[LastVoter]

Hey so I was born in Washington, but haven't lived there since I was 5. So I'd like to know a little about Washington politics (I figure this is the general Washington topics thread. If it isn't, please direct me to the right one).

Welcome to the thread! Yes, you're in the right place.

First, what's the general political layout of Washington? From what I understand, the West, specifically the Puget Sound area is very liberal in most cases, while the East is very conservative. And I know Bellingham is a random liberal college town enclave in an otherwise sparsely populated area. But other than that, I don't know much about which parts of Washington have which political affiliations.

Here's the 2008 map:



The Puget Sound metro is definitely very left-leaning.  Seattle and its innermost suburban areas are very left-wing, especially on social issues; the affluent east side of Lake Washington has been trending Democratic over the years as social issues have become more prominent.  The outer Seattle suburbs vary, but lean strong Democratic; social issue voting tends to lean left but depends on education/income especially.  Tacoma (south of Seattle), Bremerton (west) and Everett (north) are all left-leaning with some socially conservative Democrats.  Olympia is very left-wing, although its suburbs only tilt left.  Bellingham is the same deal, with some very conservative areas outside of it.

Southwestern Washington varies from right-ring rural areas to working-class industry towns (like Kelso-Longview) to lower-to-upper middle class suburbs and exurbs (the Vancouver area.)

The rest of Western Washington varies like every state does, with some very conservative rural areas, towns that vary by industry and the nature of their population.  Overall, Western Washington is fairly competitive in most elections outside Seattle.

With a few exceptions (parts of urban areas, areas of minority populations and a hippie enclave in the Okanogan), Eastern Washington tends to be Republican and conservative all-around.

Second, what differences do Washington Democrats have with other Democrats? What are they notably more conservative or more liberal on than other Dems?

I'd say they're more liberal overall, although a lot are fiscally moderate.  Washington has quite a few Dem-leaning swing voters that muddle things overall.  Spokane, Tacoma, Everett, Bremerton and the lower-scale Seattle suburbs also have some conservative Democrats.  Overall, though, I'd say there are many fewer blue dogs in Washington versus the national average (not a surprise.)

Third, are those Socialist Alternative guys actually a factor, or is it just a case of "stronger than usual" third party voting?

Non-factor.  They only make the ballot in Seattle districts because no Republican filed.  Even a Republican would kick them out -- which is saying something, considering the voting patterns in central Seattle.

Fourth, who represents Kent, Washington? I was born there (in '93), so I'm curious to know who would have represented me and who would be representing me now.

Pretty sure Adam Smith represents it now, not sure about back then

I wouldn't call second homes from Seattle area residents in Okanoganan and Chelan a hippie enclave.

[LastVoter]

Congrats on your second term, Mayor McGinn

why?

[LastVoter]

SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Good for neo-liberalism too.

[LastVoter]

SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

WA tends to be a great state ...

Did you not notice the charter schools?

[LastVoter]

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

looks like we'll get the federal invasion

A full-scale invasion or just a few National Guardsmen pacing the streets of Seattle and breaking windows and killing dogs?

[LastVoter]

SUSA results, with good news for Dems, and great news for pot and gay marriage:

Governor
Inslee 49%
McKenna 44%

U.S. Senate
Cantwell 54%
Baumgartner 38%

Referendum 74 (Right to marriage for gay and lesbian couples)
Approved 56%
Rejected 38%

Charter schools
Yes 52%
No 26%

Two-thirds tax increase
Yes 58%
No 21%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 57%
No 34%

Attorney General
Ferguson 42%
Dunn 33%

WA tends to be a great state ...

Did you not notice the charter schools?

Or Tim Eyeman's 2/3 tax increase initiative?

Oh I thought that was the income tax which would have required two-thirds support.

[LastVoter]

Washington doesn't have an income tax. Eyeman's initiative is a repeat of his past efforts to require the Washington legislature to have a 2/3 majority to increase any taxes. Basically it constricts their ability to do anything.

So that poll didn't include the income tax initiative?

[LastVoter]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7KPvmJ514p4

[LastVoter]

Charter schools might fail...

[LastVoter]

http://socialistalternative.org/news/article22.php?id=1972
Good result.

[LastVoter]

http://socialistalternative.org/news/article22.php?id=1972
Good result.

I could see (with time) a serious third party dynamic begin in Washington:

Urban cores (Seattle, downtown TacomaRenton): Dems vs Greens/socialists
Middlings (70-80% of districts): Dems versus Republicans
Super conservative/rural areas: Republicans vs tea party offshoots/constitution party

..or maybe I am simply dreaming.

Small fix.

[LastVoter]

Franklin County updated today, and is now the second county (the other being Adams) to have swung to Obama. This might be a pretty good guess as to why.

Seems like only Adams swung(31 to 32), but franklin went from 38% Obama to 37%. I'm using
http://vote.wa.gov/results/current/President-Vice-President_ByCounty.html and
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/election/uscounties.html

[LastVoter]

Why are you using the Washington Post for 2008 numbers? You do realize you're on an elections results website, right?

here's what I have:
2008: 60.81-37.19 McCain (+23.62 R)
2012: 60.52-37.27 Romney (+23.25 R)

That's a 0.37% swing to Obama. Once Dave adds write-ins, both Romney and Obama will see their percentages decline a little bit, but that shouldn't change the margin much (which is what is used to determine swing).

Well usually atlas shows up when you search for something specific on google...
It looks like Adams swing was larger anyway though.

[LastVoter]

Can anybody make by-precint maps of gay marriage/marijuana legalization of Eastern Washington county with a large Hispanic population?

[LastVoter]

Do a lot of minorities(residents of Central District) read the Stranger? Seems like some of the results here would suggest that.

[LastVoter]

Can't democrats get one of the Republicans to caucus with them? Like the one from Walla Walla, she voted for gay marriage.

[LastVoter]

Sawant thinks the redevelopment of SLU is a "corporate giveaway," that Seattle needs rent control, that Yesler Terrace's redevelopment is bad, that the ride free area should be brought back, and so on. As a city councilwoman, she would have influence on issues of development and transit. While having a third party member of the city council would be kind of fun from an electoral perspective, she is so wrong on important issues that I would rather see Conlin win.

And Meeker, we are long over-due for a new title.

Amazon should be prevented from building in SLU.