Romney's chances in Wisconsin

[LastVoter]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

There is no exit poll Barrett bias, absentee ballots could not be "exit polled".

[LastVoter]

You have to factor in the exit poll Barrett bias. The exits are great news for Romney. If he is only down by 6 in the exits and those exits have a 12 point Barrett bias, that means Romney is actually up by about 6. This extrapolation may be off by a point or so, but Wisco is a toss-up, maybe lean very slightly Romney.

LOL no.

How is it a no?

Bush only lost WI by 1% (11,000) votes in 2004, and much less in 2000 where he only lost by less than 6,000!.....2008 doesn't count because McCain stood NO chance after the perception of the GOP after Bush's second term. NONE. Palin didn't help either, mind.

Whereas, a few months before the 2012 election, Walker is currently winning in a landslide.

Trends, trends, trends. To ignore trends would be naive. Anything can happen in 5 months, sure. But as of June 2012, I think WI gets slotted back into the "toss up" column akin to the Bush/Kerry margin, and within the margin of error for a Romney win.

Hardly illogical thinking, no?

It's not a toss-up unless the Obama campaign is as poor as the Wisconsin Dem party. Obama wouldn't allow himself to get destroyed in the air, and his GOTV effort would be better. It's a "Tilt Obama".