Senate seat races tend to be far more partisan than Governor's races. Regardless of Scott Brown's personal policies, he was going to support Mitch McConnell. Meanwhile, when it comes to Christie, New Jersey is more concerned with his policies in the state than his party. The only partisan motivation they'd have to turn him out is to cut down a GOP star.
It's a 50-50 shot for Booker at best (and I doubt it's that good), so I doubt he takes it.
I would definitely put the odds south of 50%.
But what is the cost of losing though? Obviously, it doesn't look good to lose, but I see some pluses to just giving it a shot. He can build a donor network for future campaigns, become more nationally known and look like a good soldier for the Democrats. Honestly, he should be worried about winning and becoming governor of New Jersey. That might tarnish his political career more than losing to Christie.
True, but there's no shortage of people looking to move up in New Jersey. If he takes the plunge on Governor and, say, loses 52-48, will everyone else step aside so he can run for Senate the next year? Because that's probably the only statewide open seat that will be around for a while.
Right now, he has the power to pretty much clear the room when he wants to run for something. But that will likely only work once. I don't see him rolling the dice.
