Italy 2013: The official thread

[Andrea]

La Russa, Meloni and Crosetto have officially formed their new party, breaking from PdL.

but still being allied with them in the end.

PD is drawing up rules for their primary elections to choose parliamentary candidates. They hope to make them as complicated as possible with exceptions of exceptions from the rules.
The leader will choose the top of lists and he will also have a reserve of 10% of candidates he can personally choose.

MPs with more than 15 years in Parliament should not stand again unless they ask for an exception to the rule. The party national committee can grant up to 32 exceptions for long serving MPs. 10 MPs asked for it and they were successful in their aim. The 10 are

Anna Finocchiaro
Rosy Bindi
Giuseppe Lumia
Maria Pia Garavaglia
Franco Marini
Cesare Marini
Gianclaudia Bressa
Giuseppe Fioroni
Luciano Agostini
Giorgio Merlo

Big cities mayors, regional councillors and cabinet members aren't expected to run unless they are granted an exception (again).

[Andrea]

IPSOS poll for Ballarò (last night's programme)

PD 36.3%
PDL 18%
Grillo 13.8%
SEL 5.8%
UDC 5.6%
Lega 4.6%
Italia Futura (Montezemolo) 3.2%
La Destra 2.2%
Commies 1.9%
Di Pietro 1.9%
Fini 1.8%
Pannella/Bonino/Radicals 1.2%
Fermare il declino 1.1%


IPR for TG3 (Monday)

PD 33%
Grillo 16.5%
PDL 16%
Sel 5.5%
Lega 5.5%
UDC 4.5%
Commies/Greens 2.5%
Fini 2.5%
La Destra 2.0%
Di Pietro 2%
Pannela/Bonino 2%

[Andrea]

SEL is holding primary elections for their parliamentary candidates too. They decided to follow PD method including a quota of candidates decided by the national party to be placed on top spots. They released their list today. It includes 23 names (I guess it's basically 1/3 of the seats they will get). The Green names are some old faces from the past (Francescato, De Petris, Frassoni).

On PD front, the deadline for candidates expired last night. Today and tomorrow provincial executives are officially approving the lists to submit to members/suppoters vote.
However, we still don't know who will be in Bersani's "national quota" of candidates (these candidates will skip primaries). We will probably discover them along with final candidates list.

Regarding their primary elections, they will be held at provincial level. They have decided how many candidates each province is entitled. However, they haven't told the spots the various provincial winners will get in the circonscriptions/regions lists.

Rosy Bindi has been dumped on Reggio Calabria, Fioroni on Messina, Finocchiaro on Taranto.....I don't know who will have to vote for Franco Marini, I suppose Abruzzo.

It looks like there are lots of candidates and competition in Sicily and Campania....

[Andrea]

Monti won't run. But he says he's "available" to take up any responsibility if asked by the Parliament., he can support anyone who would back his agenda (based on Reform and Europe).
He criticizes Berlusconi and CGIL (left wing trade union).

[Andrea]

I'm seeing that he refused to lead a center-right coalition because of Berlusconi's antics but that he still left the door open to run his own centrist slate. Is that the case or did he totally rule out running?

Technically speaking, I think he can't officially run because he's already a Life Senator. But he's open to become PM again if asked by political parties who would back his agenda.

So basically a "No, but maybe yes" speech. UDC & co can now say "yes, we agree on everything you propose".....so I guess you are right, he can easily lead them now. I wrote too soon.

How does the Calderoli's electoral law work? Do the PM indicated candidate need to be up for parliament too or is it not necessary?

[Andrea]

5 MPs leave PD to follow Monti. The most prominent of them being Ichino. The other 4 are Benedetto Adragna (Sicily), Lucio D'Ubaldo (Lazio), Flavio Pertoldi (Friuli), Giampaolo Fogliardi (Veneto).

The 23 SEL candidates indicated by their national executive: Titti Di Salvo,  Francesco Ferrara, Sergio Boccadutri, Nicola Fratoianni, Massimiliano  Smeriglio, Gennaro Migliore, Claudio Fava, Monica Cerutti, Loredana De Petris, Grazia Francescato, Maria Luisa Boccia (they are all party executive members)
Roberto Natale (RAI journalist; Journalists Federation chairman), Laura Boldrini (Spokesperson of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees), Giorgio Airaudo  (FIOM Trade Unionist), Giulio Marcon (spokeperson of a network working on globalisation, peace, human rights, environment, fair trade, ethical finance), Giulio Volpe (University of Foggia chancellor), Pape Diaw (spokeperson of Senegalese Community), Ida Dominjanni (Journalist, from Manifesto), Monica Frassoni  (former Green MEP), Giovanni Baruzzino (FIAT worker who is currently having a legal battle with them), Francesco Forgione (former MP, former chairman of Antimafia select committee), Celeste Costantino (feminist campaigner).

Various former MPs: Di Salvo (DS), Francescato (Green), De Petris (Green), Migliore (Communist Refoundation, PRC), Forgione (PRC), Ferrara (PRC), Boccia (PRC), Fava (DS), Massimiliano Smeriglio (PRC).

[Andrea]

Yes, at first I also thought he wasn't running...but after 10 minutes from the end of the speech, I realized it was a speech to indicate he's running!

I guess I am slow but he isn't the clearest man on earth.

So who left PDL so far to sign up to Monti's love?
Frattini, Mario Mauro MEP, Pisanu, Albertini (former Milan mayor who will run now for Lombardy presidency)...maybe Mantovani...anyone else relevant?
He got La Malfa too.
There are rumours of another 3-4 PD MPs going.

[Andrea]

What are diverse deadlines for forming parties, formalizing lists, declaring alliances?

Looks to me like these things may actually be important this time around.

11-13 January: list symbols should be registred at the Interior Ministry
20-21 Jan: candidates lists must be presented

[Andrea]

Monti met UDC, FLI and Italia Futura today.

They decided for a single list at the Senate (predictable because of the thresholds there) but for a coalition at the House. The old motto "more lists, more votes"

Holy Roman Church endorsed Monti. No surprise.

Tabacci presented its list called Centro Democratico (Democratic Centre) in support of Bersani.

Silvio's divorce settlement has been published: the former wife will get 3,000,000€ each month.

[Andrea]

IPR Marketing poll for TG3

PD 31%
SEL 4.5%
Other Centre-Left (Tabacci and co) 2%

Monti List 10%
UDC 3.5%
FLI 2.5%

PDL 16.5%
Lega 5.5%
La Destra 2%

M5S 14%

Orange Movement 2.5%
IDV Di Pietro 2%
Pannella/Bonino 1.5%

I don't know the exact wording but the question with PM candidates named resulted in Bersani 37% Monti 24% Berlusconi 24%


Because of new Census figures, there has been a change in seats allocation by regions.

House

Piemonte I (Turin) -1 seat
Lombardy II +2
Lombardy III +1
Trentino Alto Adige +1
Veneto I +2
Liguria -1
Emilia +2
Lazio I (Rome) +2
Lazio II (everything else) +1
Campania I (Naples) -1
Campania II (everything else) -1
Puglia -2
Calabria -2
Sicily I -1
Sicily II -1
Sardinia -2

Senate

Lombardy +2
Emilia +1
Lazio +1
Campania -1
Puglia -1
Sicily -1
Sardinia -1

[Andrea]

Also, didn't Lega say they won't run with PdL as long as Berlusconi is the standard bearer?

Yes, they said so this week. But I don't think they have made a final decision yet.

Is it possible that the PD forms a coalition with a strong Monti-led centre-block ?

Who would likey become PM then ?

They won't need to. PD+SEL+other left will have their own majority.

Italy's election system is rigged so that the largest party/coalition automaticly wins 54% of the seats. The left will have a solid majority of their owm. No need to compromise with Monti in the centre.   

At the House, yest. At the Senate, it is more complicated. The seats bonus is determined at regional level (winning coalition in region X gets 55% of seats in region X and so on).
It's tricky there for the PD & co if they don't carry 1 between Lombardia, Veneto or Sicilia (and they need to win Campania). If Lega goes alone, it will make the task much much easier.

A difference compared to 2006 and 2008 it's that at the time in the region they lost they almost won all the seats destined to opposition...this time they will have to divide them with at least 2 other blocks.
On the other hand, the fact there are many more competitive lists allows PD to win a couple of regions without needing high %.

[Andrea]

In a couple of places (for ex Turin) PD incumbents did really bad in yesterday's vote.
Some youngish faces in Lombardy too. Civati won in Monza, Guerini in Lodi, 33 year old Braga is reconfirmed in Como, a 27 years old girl carried Lecco. Veteran Barbara Pollastrini came out on top in Milan but behind her in good positions there are new people like Quartapelle, LaForgia, Mauri.
Renzi's spin doctor and former TV producer Giorgio Gori flopped in Bergamo (predictable. I had him at best third, he finished 4th).
Rosy Bind has apparently won in Reggio Calabria.
Votes from Naples are as slow as usual to come in.

[Andrea]

Rosy Bindi is second in Reggio Calabria's  PD MP selection. Way above the third (she basically run in a male-female ticket with the regional councillor who topped the poll with a couple of hundreds more votes than her).

Still no figures from Naples but Bassolino's wife is out. Cazzolino (Bassolino's pupil) pushed for another woman who came out on top.

As for the Senate battle, even with LN not running with PdL, could PD really get Lombardy or Veneto?

I remember seeing a poll for the Lombardia regional election (naturally, it might not be representative of the Senate election) showing a very close fight if Lega and PdL allied and an easy win for the left if they ran separately.

Yeah but that could be in response to the Formigoni scandal. I don't know how much that will affect the parliamentary elections though it obviously doesn't help things.

In 2008 in Lombardy, at the Senate, PdL polled 34.4% and Lega 20.7%
PD got 28.2% and Di Pietro 3.8%. I suppose PD+SEL should be in low 30s. And I think it could be enough to carry the region if PdL and Lega run separately

[Andrea]

It looks like we got rid of D'Antoni and Garavaglia through the PD primaries.
Other incumbents on their way out or struggling in many areas. None of them were national names though.
Finocchiaro won Taranto.

[Andrea]

Just so I understand, candidates file for the Primary in constituencies that aren't necessarily where they live by orders of the party leadership (or, if they're renegades or party leaders themselves, wherever they want)? Can they vote in that constituency in the Primary and General or do they have to vote where they actually live if they live in another constituency?

Yes, you don't have to live where you stand. For ex Bindi and Finocchiaro have nothing to do with Reggio Calabria and Taranto. Generally, almost all PD candidates who stood in the Primary did it in the province they live or where they were elected in 2008. Just because it's where they could have hoped to get some votes.
Many prominent PD people skipped them anyway. Bersani will put them in his 10% of candidates quota

As for voting, they will vote in the municipality where their name appears on the residents' register.

[Andrea]

You can even stand in many constituencies at the same time (unless they changed the law in the last few years. Of course, I assume the PD's bylaws may ban it even if the law allows it.) But you cannot stand for the Camera and the Senate at the same time. That is verboten.

Bersani is supposed to stand in Milan, Naples and Rome. I suppose Berlusconi will stand everywhere at the House.

[Andrea]

Any candidate that stands in more than one constituency is surely a party leader and part of the 10% quota, right?

Yes

[Andrea]

Full results of PD Parliamentary Primary

http://www.primarieparlamentaripd.it/risultati.htm

And I'm glad many members here are coming back down to earth. A center-left win is far from a guarantee. This is Italy and I don't just say that to be a smart ass. Berlusconi will pull out his Red Scare tactics (as he should with Bersani) so that should narrow it. That said, there is a clear favorite here and the Right would have to put on one spectacular performance to pull this off.

Ah, but it isn't just Berlusconi I'm thinking of.

Aside from Lega, anyone else in particular?

Monti resurrecting DC and carrying it to the win?

[Andrea]

SEL presented their candidates' list today. More when I find them all in the same page...

Bersani lunched with Renzi.

New polls released in the first days of 2013

Piepoli (for Affari Italiani)

PD 33%
SEL 6%
Other CL (Tabacci, Socialists) 3%

Monti-UDC-FLI lists 12%

PdL 17%
La Destra/The Right 3%
Fratelli d’Italia (La Russa, Meloni and co) 2%
Intesa Popolare 2%

Lega 6%

M5S 11%

Ingroia's Civic Revolution 5%

Tecné (for SKY News)

PD 34.7%
SEl 4.2%
Other CL 1.4%

PDL 19.6%
La Destra/The Right 1.7%
Fratelli d'Italia 0.4

Lega 4.1%

Monti List 6.2%
UDC 4.6%
FLI 1.2%

M5S 16.3%

Ingroia's Civic Revolution 3.7%

CISE for Sole 24 Ore (late December)

Coalition supporting Bersani 36.2
Coalition supporting Monti 23.3
Coalition supporting Berlusconi 21.8
M5S  13.8

Still a lot of confusion around here.

Monti bashing PD, saying it "silences conservatives" and is dominated by views of CGIL and Vendola.

and Fassina! Bloody Fassina! Untile 1 month ago nobody knew who the hell was Fassina. Now he's one of the most talked about politicians.

[Andrea]

It turns out SEL national executive approved just the top spots on their House and Senate lists. But basically they are the electable ones. The rest will be mainly fillers.

House

Lombardy 1: Claudio Fava, Daniele Farina, Valentina La Terza, Patrizia Quartieri
Lombardy 2: Titti Di Salvo, Luigi Lacquaniti
Lombardy 3: Franco Bordo
Piedmont 1:  Giorgio Airaudo, Celeste Costantino, Michele Curto
Piedmont 2:  Giorgio Airaudo
Veneto 1 : Alessandro Zan, Michela Faccioli
Veneto2 : Giulio Marcon , Valentina Dascanio  
Friuli Venezia Giulia: Serena Pellegrino
Liguria: Stefano Quaranta, Nico Isetta
Emilia Romagna: Francesco Ferrara, Giovanni Paglia, Cinzia Terzi
Tuscany: Martina Nardi, Marisa Nicchi, Gabriele Berni, Farihia Aidid
Umbria: Elisabetta Piccolotti
Marche: Laura Boldrini
Abruzzo: Gianni Melilla
Lazio 1: Massimiliano Smeriglio, Sergio Boccadutri, Ileana Piazzoni, Filiberto Zaratti, Cecilia D'Elia
Lazio 2: Nazzareno Pilozzi
Campania 1: Gennaro Migliore, Arturo Scotto, Antonella Cammardella
Campania 2: Gennaro Migliore, Michele Ragosta
Basilicata: Antonio Placido
Calabria: Ferdinando Aiello, Andrea Di Martino
Sicily 1: Laura Boldrini
Sicily 2: Laura Boldrini, Sofia Martino
Apulia: Nichi Vendola, Nicola Fratoianni, Annalisa Pannarale, Toni Matarrelli, Donatella Duranti, Arcangelo Sannicandro
Sardinia:  Michele Piras

Senate

Lombardy: Monica Frassoni, Tino Magni, Pina Giorgio
Piedmont: Monica Cerutti, Maria Chiara Acciarini
Veneto: Grazia Francescato, Maria Teresa Di Riso
Friuli Venezia: Grazia Francescato, Loredana Panariti
Liguria: Francesco Forgione, Carla Nattero
Emilia Romagna: Maria Luisa Boccia, Massimo Mezzetti, Elena Tagliani
Tuscany: Pape Diew, Ida Dominjanni, Alessia Petraglia, Renzo Ulivieri
Umbria: Roberto Natale
Marche: Maria Luisa Boccia
Abruzzo: Roberto Natale, Anna Suriani Camera
Lazio: Loredana De Petris, Massimo Cervellini, Maria Rita Manzo
Campania: Peppe De Cristofaro, Dino Di Palma
Basilicata: Giovanni Barozzino
Calabria: Ida Dominjanni, Eva Catizone Camera
Sicily: Francesco Forgione, Raffaele Gentile, Anna Bonforte
Apulia: Dario Stefano Giulio Volpe, Francesca Abbrescia
Sardinia: Luciano Uras

[Andrea]

And who is Fassina?

PD spokesman on economic affairs.
Don't feel bad if you don't know him. No-one really knew who he was.

[Andrea]

LOL Giuliana Sgrena didn't win SeL's primaries?

Not only she didn't win it, but she finished 4th (last place) in the female section

[Andrea]

It seems SEL has settled at around 5% right now in most poll, hasn't it?

After some protests after releasing their candidates lists, they made some changes in Tuscany and Veneto. The top man in the Senate's list in Tuscany moves to Veneto's top spot. Number 2 was already running also in Calabria and she will run just there. So number 2 and 3 (football manager Ulivieri) will become 1 and 2. They were the winners of primaries and were relegated to unwinnable positions. SEL have 1 safe seat in Tuscany at the Senate and a second if they perform well.

[Andrea]

It looks like PSI is negotiating some names to be put in Bersani's quota of candidates within PD lists. So I suppose they won't field their own list leaving Tabacci as the first (only) party below threshold in the CL.LOL!

[Andrea]

PDL and Lega reached their coalition agreement. As for what the agreement is supposed to say, I will forget it as they have a good track record in backtracking saying we all misunderstood.