Italy Local Elections May 2012

[Andrea]

1,035 municipalities will elect their mayor and the local council on May 6th/7th.

The main cities/towns voting this year include:

Palermo: Mayor Diego Cammarata (Forza Italia) resigned in January. His term would have expired in May anyway. The Centre-Left organized a primary election which ended as a disaster. Fabrizio Ferrandelli (a former local councillor for Di Pietro's party who has been expelled and has backed the idea of supporting regional centrist governor Lombardo when PD was opposed to it before changing its mind)  beated by a couple of hundred of votes Rita Borsellino (supported by the national leadership of PD, Di Pietro and Left&Liberity). There are allegations about voting fraud flying around. Italia dei Valori and SEL (Left and Liberty) have already said they wouldn't support him as a candidate
PDL will run Massimo Costa with the backing of UDC too. Fini's FLI and MPA (Lombardo) will run Alessandro Aricò (who was in Cammarata's cabinet)
2007 result: Centre-Right coalition 53.49% Centre-Left 45.24%

Genova: Currently ruled by PD Marta Vincenzi. Much criticized for her supposed "authoritarian" tendency towards the parties supporting her and for her handling of the flood disaster this winter, she was opposed by another PD MP in the coalition primary election early this year. This resulted in SEL supported candidate Marco Doria winning.
2007 result: CL 51.21% CR 45.98%

Verona: Lega incumbent Flavio Tosi is running again. PdL is supposed to run with FLI and UDC here.
2007 result CR 60.7% CL 33.9%

Taranto
2007 (run off)  Left 76.3% Centre-Left 23.7% (it was an atypical year: the previous centre-right mayor almost bankrupted the city)

Parma: the mayor has been forced to resign after a financial scandal at the end of 2011
2007 (run off) CR 56.6 CL 43.4

Monza: Lega incumbent is running again but PdL is going at first round with its own candidate
2007 CR 53.5% CL 41.6%

Piacenza: the centre-left incumbent can't run again because he has done 2 consecutive terms
2007 run off: CL 55.7 CR 44.3

Lecce
2007 CR 56.2 CL 36.7

La Spezia
2007  CL 51.3 CR 39%

Alessandria
2007 CR 63% CL 33.6%

Asti
2007 CR 56.2 CL 32.4%

Cuneo: the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CL 51% CR 40%

Como: the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 56.2% CL 33.2%

Belluno
2007 CR 53.7 CL 42.2%

Gorizia
2007 CR 51.1 Left 20% CL 16.1%

Carrara
2007 CL 54.1% CR 35.6%

Lucca
2007 run off: CR 52.5% CL 47.5%

Pistoia: the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 run off: CL 53.3 CR 46.7

Frosinone
2007 CL 53.3% CR 35.6%

Rieti:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 52.2 CL 43.6

Isernia:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 69.1 CL 18.4%

Trani:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 60.2% CL 21.9%

Agrigento
2007 run off: CL 62.9 CR 37.1%

Trapani:  the incumbent has done 2 consecutive terms and so he will retire
2007 CR 64.7 CL 22.2%

Oristano: the incumbent was forced to resign by her own coalition last year
2007 run off: CR 58.2 CL 42.8

Catanzaro: the incumbent was an MP...you can't have the double role...everyone knew it except him, apparently...the constitutional court had to rule that yes, they can't find a way to let him have both and so he chose to be an MP afterall
2011 CR 62% CL 32.5%

Brindisi: the incumbent resigned for healt reasons
2009 run off: CR 52.5% CL 47.5


2007 was in the middle of short lived second Prodi's government. So it was a bad year for the Left, especially in the North. However, you can always trust on PD doing its best to do silly things.
The PdL/Lega dynamic will be interested. If they run separately, they will probably force many run offs in the North. Will their electorate compact itself for the secound round or (if it's sunny) many will prefer a nice trip away from home for the weekend?

Candidatures should be formally presented on April 2/3th

[Andrea]

We won Parma? Wow.

So Genoa could be a Right pick up and Palermo should stay put. The rest seem like snooze fests.

I read two weeks ago that PdL and Lega will be running separately in some places. So glad to hear.

Centre-right is winning mayoral elections in Parma since 1998 (even if at national election level, they have voted centre-left even in 2001 and 2008)


I saw a poll for Genoa at the beginning of March and it was CL 44 CR 37 UDC/Fini/Rutelli 8%
That kind of figures should see CL through in a second round but the polls was asking just parties voting intentions without naming candidates. So something may change

Yes, PdL and Lega are running sperately in quite a few places (especially main towns)

I take it Como is wholly out of reach for the left?

There was a Euromedia poll (Euromedia was usually Berlusconi's favourite pollster) showing an head to head in Como a couple of weeks ago.

[Andrea]

Some polls

Genova (by Ipsos)
Doria (CL) 49.2%
Musso (FLI/UDC) 20.1%
Viani (PdL) 12.4%
Rixi (Lega) 6.5%
Putti (5 stelle) 5.8%

Agrigento (Ipsos)

Arnone (former PD) 31.2%
Zambuto (UDC) 26%
Minacori 16.8%
Di Mauro (MPA) 11.3%
Iacolino (PDL) 10.6%
Capodicasa (PD) 4.1%

Tested run offs: neck and neck between Arnone and Zambuto. Armone would beat easily Iacolino and Di Mauro

Looking like a local mess. I don't know the details. From what I read, PdL and PD haven't a confirmed candidate (if the poll is accurate both of them are doing terribly but I guess the UDC incumbent is taking their potential PdL electorate and Arnone the left wing one).

Gorizia (Euromedia)
Romoli (PdL/Lega) 55% Cingolani (PD) 45%
Romoli (just PdL) 52.2% Cingolani (PD) 38.4% Ceretta (Lega) 9.4%

[Andrea]

Any word on how these went on Day One?

Turnout for Day 1 is 48.98%, down from 54.85% at the same hour in the same places.

[Andrea]

with just few municipalities to report turnout, final figure at 67/67% overall down from 73/75% last time

From first projections given by tv channels, it looks as Lega confirmed Verona (with PdL collapsing), centre-left forced to a run off in Genova (but way ahead), Parma could have a CL vs Grillo's 5 Stars run off and Orlando is ahead in Palermo (not clear who is second).

[Andrea]

What are the results for Genova ?

Projections gave Doria at around 45% with Musso (Fini/UDC/local lists) at around 16%, Putti (5 stelle) at 14% and Vinai (PdL) at 13%

Parma is a run off between centre-left (36%) and 5 stelle (20%).

Tosi (Lega) is confirmed Mayor of Verona with 54/55% but PdL may struggle to get 10% there.
In Monza it looks it is Lega (who is fielding the incumbent) to have collapsed and will probably be eliminated tonight.

I heard that PdL was struggling in Palermo but seeing them out of top 2 is still a bit shocking

Looks like PdL is going to get a kick but Pd itself hasn't really benefited much from it.

Reporting of results is always slow in big cities. We will have a better picture in a couple of hours.

[Andrea]

5 Stelle?

Doesn't they usually come last in elections, with small results?

Meh, I guess people are so pissed off that they are ready to go for the crazies. Beppe Grillo is an idiot and a scumbag (who said, among other things, that the government is worse than mafia because "mafia doesn't kill people[sic]"). But well, at least we don't have self-defined nazis so far.

Yeah. Guess most PdL ex-voters went for the 5 Stelle this time.

Probably some Lega votes in the North too: those who finally discovered that Lega was more interested in Rosy Mauro's diamonds and didn't have anything else to vote for.

5 Stelle got their first mayor in a little municipality near Vicenza.

Among cities "aheading" a province, it looks like that centre-left has already held Pistoia, La Spezia and Carrara and gained Brindisi. Centre-right has held Lecce, Gorizia and Verona. They have already lost Parma and Palermo where their candidate didn't reach the run off.

Incidentally looking at list votes for Verona council, it's the civic list Tosi for Verona that got lots of votes with a weak performance by the official Lega list

[Andrea]

Look at the list vote in Palermo. LOL at the extent of vote splitting

[Andrea]

After something like 3 days of counting, Catanzaro has been held by PdL Mayor without the need of a run off (50.08% with centre-left at 42.59%). Local PD is protesting against alleged misconduct during the count in some polling stations.

[Andrea]

Turnout is dwindling...

Good for the center-left...

In Parma it's holding up better than the rest of the country. I suppose M5S can make it if PdL voters are really going out to vote.

After the first day of voting

Parma -4.41 points (compared to same hour of 2 weeks ago)
Lucca -7.06
Belluno -7.37
Rieti -9.95
Piacenza -10.43
Isernia -10.55
Frosinone -10.78
L'Aquila -11.36
Asti -11.79
Monza -11.94
Genova -13.63
Taranto -13.91
Cuneo -14.9
Como -15.22
Agrigento -16.28
Alessandria -16.45
Palermo -18.34
Trapani -20.27

[Andrea]

First projections by RAI TV

Genova: Doria (Left) at 60%. Turnout less than 40%

Palermo: Olrando at 70%

In Parma more than 60% voted. It looks like 5 Stelle is ahead quite easily (60 to 40% so far)

From early reports, it looks like PD have taken Monza and confirmed Sesto easily (but another dreadful turnout: 39.36%)

[Andrea]

Como, Alessandria, Asti, Lucca, Aquila, Piacenza and Taranto looking good for centre-left

[Andrea]

5 Stelle is ahead also in Mira (province of Venice) and Comacchio. Neck and neck in Budrio (Bologna). PD probably defeated them in Garbagnate Milanese (3 polling station to come with PD leading 52 to 48%)

PD has lost Cuneo (to some censtrists). In Belluno a former PD defeated the official PD in a city run by PdL

[Andrea]

Alessandria
Centre-Left 67.97% Centre-Right 32.02%
turnout 42.14%
CL gain

Asti
CL 56.89% CR 43.1%
turnout 51,54%
CL gain

Trani
CR 50.79% CL 49.2%
turnout 54.17%


Belluno
Civic list 62.89% CL 37.31%
turnout 47.06%
gain from CR

Como
CL 74.86% CR 25.13%
turnout 42.73%
CL gain

Cuneo
Centre 59.88% CL 40.11%
turnout 53.48%
Centre gain from CL

Frosinone
CR 53.12% CL 46.87%
turnout 62.19%
CR gain from CL (what happened here? The result looked already bad from first round)

Genova
CL 59.71% CR 40.28%
turnout 39.08%
(I suppose that if PD had fielded Vicenzi again, Genova would have been won by 5 Stelle)

Isernia
CL 57.37% CR 42.62%
turnout 63.48%
CL gain (didn't expect it after first round)

L'Aquila
CL 59.19% CR 40.8%
turnout 58.04%

Lucca
CL 69.72% CR 30.27%
Turnout 44.95%
CL gain

Monza
CL 63.39% CR 36.6%
turnout 44.13%
CL gain

Parma
5 Stelle 60.22% CL 39.77%
turnout 61.18%
5 Stelle gain from CR

Piacenza
CL 57.77% CR 42.22%
turnout 54.38%

Rieti
CL 67.17% CR 32.82%
turnout 61.58%
CL gain

Taranto
CL 69.27% CR (not PdL though) 30.32%
turnout 43.21%

Palermo
Orlando 72.43% PD 27.57%
turnout 39.73%
Orlando gain from CR

Trapani (not yet final)
CR 54.62% Centre 45.38%
turnout 39.84%

Agrigento
Centre 74.89% CR 25.11%
turnout 52.79%

PD easily held Sesto San Giovanni (which is bigger than many of the "capoluoghi" just listed) after all the scandals (dreadful turnout though: 38/39%)

[Andrea]

A "hot" issue in Como was apparently this project.
http://webstorage.mediaon.it/media/2010/02/123406_1754466_DSC_0734_9957890_medium.jpg

It was basically a wall to protect streets from floods. However, it ruined the panorama (and that would likely attract less turists). It caused so many protests from local residents that they had to change the plan and destroy it (increasing the costs for the municipality) before it was finished

Add internal splits within the city PdL, the general disaster for the right in Northern towns, low turnout...but seeing centre-left at 70+% in Como is still quite shocking.

[Andrea]

Sardinia held their local elections in June. Run offs were on 24-25th June. PD and co gained both Oristano and Alghero (the only two town requiring a second round). Turnout was 51.01% in Oristano and 58.53% in Alghero