My 2008 prediction....

[Ben.]

Firstly a Bush landslide of the kind you are predicting Reaganfan is unlikely in the extreme… but I wont deny its possible…. I recently found this analysis of a Kerry vs Bush race (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm ) which suggests it will be highly competitive… should Kerry lose it will be something like… 252 Electoral Votes to 286 for Bush (Bush gains New Mexico and Iowa while Kerry gains New Hampshire)… In the House of Representatives the Dems may well make some small gains but the Republican majority stays firm despite these inroads…In the Senate the GOP gains three seats (GA, SC and NC) while the Dems gain two seats (AK and IL)… Both parties could make larger gains in the Senate however in all probability they will not…

2008:

By 2006 the Budget deficit and Bush’s keenness for liberal spending plans have agitated his Conservative base and he is soon forced to introduce drastic cuts in Social Security and health care as well as other domestic programs, while also raising taxes in an attempt to take on the ballooning budget deficit… these cuts and the rise in taxation comes as a gift for the Democrats who have recently replaced Tom Daschle with Bill Nelson (D-FL) and in the 2006 midterms the Democrats mercilessly attack Republican incumbents across the country over the new taxes and the cuts in social programs…the Democrats as a result manage to recapture both houses of Congress taking a firm if not unassailable majority in the House and a slim majority in the Senate. After several weeks of gridlock between Congress and the White House a new budget is agreed to which spreads the cuts more broadly. Bush is left weakened and concentrates on foreign policy accelerating the full scale US withdrawal from Iraq despite the weakness of the newly instated government there and while this causes some Democrats outcries generally most US voters are glad to see the back of direct US involvement in the middle east at least for the moment. The Budget deficit begins to very slowly contract however still not fast enough for the US electorate…

In early 2007 several Democrats begin to campaign for the Democratic nomination…

Sn. Russ Feingold (D-WI): effective leader of the liberal wing of the party in the senate and he is quickly endorsed by a number of other liberal dems including the 04 candidate for the nomination Howard Dean which proves a big boost as Dean’s network of liberal donors soon swings in behind their new champion.

Gov. Ed Rendell (D-PA): from the opposite wing of the party to Feingold but without the stiffness and lack of charisma that often typifies DLC Democrats, with a solid centrist record as PA governor and a record as an excellent campaigner he is quickly endorsed by Senators Jo Lieberman and Evan Bayh as well as Governors Blanco (D-LA) and Warner (D-VA) and a string of other moderate democrats.

Gov. Janet Napolitano (D-AZ): with a progressive record as governor of a formerly reliably republican state that has been seen to slowly shift leftwards and a good television presence. Governor Napolitano is seen to be effectively offering herself as a compromise candidate standing between the left (Feingold) and the right (Rendell) and she receives support from the likes of Diana Feinstein and Governor Locke of Washington.

Gov. Phil Bredesen (D-TN): A moderate southerner Governor with a personable nature much like Rendell and with similar political positions, largely running as a southern alternative with none clearly available.

Fr.Sen. John Edwards (D-NC): A left leaning southern moderate and VP running mate in 2004 with John Kerry, having honed his neo populist positions and cultivated links with organised labour he is hopping for a far more solid base from which to launch is campaign for the nomination that he had in 2004.


Initially it the race is seen as a contest between Fiengold and Napolitano however towards the beginning of fall Rendell’s campaign gains momentum as Napolitano and Feingold stumbles at the same time Edward’s union support comes into play as he concentrates on the Iowa caucus as well as latter industrial states such as Michigan and California.

Iowa Caucus…

John Edwards – 35%
Ed Rendell – 32%
Russ Feingold – 15%                    
Janet Napolitano – 10%
Phil Bredesen   - 8%


New Hampshire Primary (two weeks after IA)...

Ed Rendell – 38%
John Edwards – 22%
Russ Feingold – 20%
Janet Napolitano – 11%
Phil Bredsen – 9%

After New Hampshire Edwards campaign began to lose steam as the moderate voter he was seeking to attract began to side with Rendell and the left leaning voters moved towards Feingold after losing Michigan to Rendell Edwards quit the race some time before him Bredsen (after only gaining one win in the south) also quit the race… after Edwards Napolitano (who had been buoyed by wins in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada had stayed in the race) left the race after a diapionting finish in Missouri and soon Rendell had clinched the nomination against the leftwing challenge of Russ Feingold.

In a bit I’ll deal with the Republicans but gotta go…  

[Ben.]

Sorry Miami I didn’t realise that but from what I read it seems that it is just how the states would most likely be placed in a Kerry v Bush match up… but I’ll continue to outline the 2008 contest…any thoughts?    

Republicans 2008…

So after a narrow Kerry Defeat in 2004 (252 to 286) taking the situation after at the end of the second Bush term to be as I outlined in the last post and having done the Democratic candidates…here goes with the Republicans…

In April 2007 Richard Cheney officially announces that he will not seek the Republican nomination for President in 2008. The following candidates soon pile-in to seek the Republican nomination…

Sn.Bill Frist (R-TN): The former majority now minority leader in the Senate with a solidly conservative record however not so conservative that ordinary voters are tuned away…a good campaigner and a southerner who has despite his very loyal voting record has experience building bipartisan collations to push through legislation.

fr.Gov George Pataki (R-NY): After not running for a fourth term as Governor of New York (Eliot Spitzer soundly defeating the Republican candidate Mary Donohue in 2006) Pataki joined the Bush administration as Sectary of Health and Human Services. Pataki has effectively manoeuvred to place himself as heir apparent to the “Rockefeller Republican” wing of the Party that had last come close to capturing the nomination with the candidacy of John McCain in 2000 and it came as little surprise that both Colin Powel and John McCain quickly endorsed the former Governor’s candidacy.

Sn.Elizabeth Dole (R-NC): With broad executive experience working in the cabinets of both Ronald Reagan and George Bush senior as well as legislative experience as North Carolina’s junior senator Dole has a solid record with which to tout her viability to be President. As with Frist she has a voting record that while Conservative is not so conservative that it alienates independent voters and in fact on a number of issues she has staked out territory to the left of many Republicans which means that she would seem capable of fighting for the support of both the left and centre of the Party.

Sn.Orrin Hatch (R-UT): A Solidly conservative republican senator from a even more solidly conservative state, some gaffes in the past but that does not detract from his massive legislative experience and ability to appeal to the Republican base.

Gov.Haley Barbour (R-MS): A former lobbyist turned Governor of this rock solidly republican, deep southern state… with the most solidly conservative record out of all the mainstream candidates Barbour is very much able to appeal to the republican grassroots particularly those in the south and west. However in many ways Barbour seems to lack the experience or temperament to be able to be a viable candidate for President and added to this he can be seen as too conservative to win over the majority of American voters.


Alan Keyes (R-MD): Coz what would a Republican Primary season be without Alan Keyes.  

New Hampshire Primary…

George Pataki – 39%
Bill Frist – 26%
Elizabeth Dole – 17%
Orrin Hatch – 10%
Haley Barbour – 6%
Alan Keyes - 2%

In the south Frist eventually prevails over Dole while the hardline conservative largely plums for Hatch, while he does poorly in many southern states Pataki makes a very strong sowing when the primaries move back to the north again and by mid March seems to have the nomination sewn up with Frist a solid second followed by Hatch.

As before when I Have time I’ll have a go at outlining the contest between Pataki and Rendell in 2008…

Any Thoughts?      

[Ben.]

GOPhound I'm not basing these predictions on a scenario where Kerry wins in 2004... I was responding to the original post that was based on the assumption that Kerry loses in 2004... However I STRONGLY disagree with the Bush landslide Reaganfan suggests...  

Your right about Santorum though he would defiantly be a possibility however I would predict that if both Frist and Pataki ran then he would not… having said that I think that where one of these two not to run then Santorum would proably run…

Now as I said I was assuming for my predictions that Kerry loses narrowly in 2004, however where Kerry to win I think the Republican field looking to challenge him would be somewhat different…

I think that Pataki might well still run, Frist I would bet would not, he can afford to wait to take on Kerry’s VP in 2012 but if Kerry looks weak then Frist might well throw his hat into the ring… Barbour was a bit of a joke really, I was looking for a solidly conservative southern governor with a bit of an ego and to me Barbour seemed about right (however please suggest a more plausable candidate) as with Frist I doubt “Barbour” would take on an incumbent… Liddy Dole I would imagine would not run against an incumbent President Kerry… however I think that Orrin Hatch might well…Santorum would not want to frit away time, money and credibility taking on a tough incumbent, but again where Kerry vulnerable he might consider running…

Where Kerry the incumbent in 2008 it all comes down to the reaction of the Republican base to a Democratic President with the very real possibility of Democrat gains in the Senate and the House…I doubt that the Dems would retake both the House and the Senate in 2004 in fact both will probably remain GOP but Republican majorities will be narrowed in all likelihood…this gridlock will mean that the likes of McCain and Snowe will become very important in getting legislation through… a new Democrat leader in the Senate such as Bill Nelson would be a good idea for this…so I doubt Kerry could do anything more than Clinton, but he will have a problem with the retiring Baby boomers and the massive strain this will put on social security and that could be exploited by a GOP challenger in 2008…However I doubt that there would be much “clear red water” between Kerry and his opponent in 2008 as even where the Democrats to win back the Senate and the House in 2006 Kerry would all probability would still have to govern as a moderate and so there would be little the GOP could take issue with him on that could appeal directly to Independent voters… So in 2008 I would expect a solidly conservative Republican to get the nomination defeating Pataki while Frist, Santorum and Dole sat the contest out and that November the GOP candidate is defeated by a firm margin…

That’s my two cents

PS; Even as a Dem Frist (despite his being fairly conservative) is the kinda guy I could vote for coz I trust him and he comes across as a decent guy to me… but in a face off between Kerry and Frist and if the senate and the house where close two I’d have to vote for JFK…  

[Ben.]

I’m afraid Reaganfan I just don’t see such a big win for Bush… The economy is hardly roaring back into life and jobs continue to fail to be created quickly enough, In Iraq it seems very questionable that a national government with its own capacity to defend its self will be in place in time to hand over control in the summer, Bush seems to have questions over his credibility and while the “AWOL” story is hardly very serious it would seem to further undermine Bush credibility as a war leader… The ballooning deficit is one hell of a problem and Bush’s spendthrift attitude to Government spending is very worrying while at the same time he introduces massive tax cuts that further inflate the Budget Deficit…

Now don’t get me wrong personally I see Bush as decent guy (would never vote for him) but don’t see anything duplicitous in his character… having said that I would argue that the public with the failure to finds WMDs, with the AWOL issue are beginning to see him not quite as straight  forward as they where lead to believe however this feeling seems directed more at the Administration than the President however the two are entwined to such as degree it may be difficult to separate them in voters minds.

Kerry as we see has problems but he seems to be able to aggressively campaign and rebut any Republican attacks on him…he has an excellent war record that will help personalise him for many voters while interestingly also shifting him away from his liberal record in the Senate…his problems are that record and his perceived “aloofness” however I cant see the old “liberal spendthrift” attack working this time a more sophisticated line of attack is needed and his aloofness seems to have been easily corrected as a drawback during the primary campaign…

In the end I see this race (barring any unforeseen scandal or upset) as higly competitive however a Bush win will be based on securing a few marginal states not sweeping entire regions… In many states which where close last time between Gore and Bush the “Nader factor” was very important (I strongly doubt a Nader showing even half as strong as last time seeing as how he is running (if he in fact runs) alone as an independent) In States such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Washington, Oregon, New Mexico, New Hampshire and Florida Nader effectively held the balance his supporters would have either boosted Gore into a solid win or as in the case of NH or FL won the states from Bush…. Bush efforts to win over Hispanics could lead NM into his column in November while in Iowa he would seem to have a good shot…Opinion polls and the 2000 results would suggest that Minnesota will go Dem, While the State government and Congressional delegation in WI is overwhelming Democratic at the same time NH showed in January that Dems and Independents are highly motivated, with the total turnout in NH coming close to what would have been required to win the state in 2000 based on how many voted then…

So finally a highly competitive race however they said that about Dukakis in 1988… but I did hear a statistic that stated that every incumbent President who has been re-elected has always lead in the polls throughout the year leading up to the election and Bush has not… but then again these arguments based on bast elections are generally bogus like “Republicans have to win Ohio” or “Democrats have to win five southern states and have a candidate from the south” are all bogus…

Well There you go… Any Thoughts?                                      

[Ben.]

A Kerry/ Gephardt ticket is firstly a terrible and idea and secondly very unlikely to occur…. Now on the face of it such a paring seems possible… However you are forgetting that both Gephardt and Kerry are the same age and have been criticized for their stiff speaking styles… Kerry needs a running mate who can help solidify blue collar and lower and middle income support for the Dem ticket while also softening Kerry’s edges… Gephardt could not win Missouri for Kerry and as Iowa showed he would not be a lock to help secure the Midwest…in many ways Gephardt’s political philosophy is very similar to old Midwestern left wingers such as Mondale and we know where nominating Mondale got us last time… Kerry has a number of far more effective and exciting alternatives for the VP slot on a Dem ticket…

Sn.John Edwards (D-NC)

Sn.Mary Landrieu (D-LA)

Fr,Sn.John Breaux (D-LA)

Fr,Gen.Wes Clark (D-AR)

Gov.Mark Warner (D-VA)

Sn.Evan Bayh (D-IN)

Sn.Bob Graham (D-FL)

Of those  I’d say the top three would be Edwards, Landrieu, Warner and then at 4 perhaps Bayh but the sad thing is that he is a very uninspiring speaker… but then again he is the only potential VP from the Midwest… having said that you do not have to come from a region to appeal to that region as I think that Edwards, Landrieu and Warner would have broad geographical support and this would greatly assist Kerry… While Gephardt as VP would be a disaster…

[Ben.]

Your right about Frist… not particularly inspiring but a decent guy…who would make a good republican president…But where Bush to win in November and if by 2008 the Republicans still controlled Congress (unlikely but possible) then I’d still vote for the Dem candidate… At the moment though I’m still expecting a very close race this November…  

[Ben.]

 On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

[Ben.]

Rice i seem to remember is a resident of California...however i believe she grew up in the south... from what i have read and heard here family where a moderatly comfortable black family (no mean feat in the south in those days) which ran a store serving the local black population in their area... Her home state would go down as CA...however if she was ever on a ticket (which i doubt) she would bring next to no geographical advantage to it...    

[Ben.]

 I'm with you there Reaganfan Owens where Bush to win in Nov or alternatively where Bush to lose and if Kerry where not be a lock in 2008 and then again in 2012 if Kerry was too strong in 2008 would be a very strong GOP candidate... In my view its good news for the dems that Bush isn’t replacing Cheney with him this time around...well as surprise could still happen... but I’m hoping and betting not…