Kerry and the media

[Ben.]

The media was important not because (as some Dean supporters have suggested in Dem forums) the media was looking to destroy Dean…but the fact was that the story after Iowa was Kerry and Edwards coming back from the dead so to speak while Dean proceeded to lose it on national TV (ok the media did over do that speech but it’s the effect that counts)… With Kerry as the new front runner and the “frontloaded” primary system Kerry with his momentum has been able to smash his opponents and it has become a self-fulfilling prophesy with the Media reporting that Kerry has had an upset win in Iowa sending his poll numbers up in NH… he then wins NH and so his poll numbers are boosted nationwide yet again and he continues winning and the cycle repeats its self again and again… at the same time Dean became more of a joke and a marginalized character who’s own failings when compared with Kerry made Kerry even more attractive and this also contributed to Kerry’s winning streek…

So Yes the media was important… but the two factors that got Kerry the nomination was his decision late last year to stage his comeback in Iowa and the frontloaded primary system which was well designed to help the winner of the early contests at the same time the frontloaded system also meant that with Dean’s implosion candidates had to retool their message to face Kerry not Dean and this hurt Clark in particular as he has largely market himself as an electable version of Dean… so there you go…              

[Ben.]

Sorry ignored you questions there… well here is my response…

1.) Electability was an issue when Dean was the frontrunner in fact all the mainstream candidates hammered Dean as unelectable… while many in the media suggested that he would face a very difficult task in taking on President Bush… the electability issue was raised many times prior to Kerry doing his Lazerus Act.

2.) The national polls did receive a lot of press attention in early fall… there was a lot of press about polls which showed that both Clark and Kerry either beat or tied with Bush in a hypothetical match up but then it was Clark who was the candidate the press gave most attention to…while a little latter not long before Sadam’s capture polls where also released showing Kerry and Clark competitive against Bush…

3.) The importance of leading in national polls is that it is meant to demonstrate that that candidate has a breadth of support nation wide… but I take your point however a poll in every state would be complex and from the few that have trickled through over recent days Kerry has very healthy leads in Maryland and Washington two Democratic leaning states… but the importance is that it shows that the race will be close as “bellwether” states usually reflect national polls in terms of how divided voters are between the candidates… and historically candidates who win the popular vote generally win the electoral vote… Bush being an obvious exception… added to this its quite a story to see Bush’s poll number near there lowest since he came to power…but they will fluctuate right through to November IMHO…

Hope that helps…                      

[Ben.]

  Not knocking Dean here... supported the guy for a while... so not a dean basher here but he has been infuriating me recently with his transformation into little more than a vanity candidate...

Gustaf while there have been three occasions when the PV and EV have produced different victors generally they both produce the same candidate as the winner... and it was that they are generally a good guide as to who has the edge amongst the general electorate... that was what I was driving at...