Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections thread

[Ben.]

And the perfect storm for the opponents of Labour would be Labour losing Ealing Southall to the Conservatives and Sedgefield to the Lib Dems.

mmm... that would be nice (wont happen... but it'd be nice ).

As it stand i think Tory efforts are almost certain to be concentrated on London if by dint of geography rather than anything else (its in London, in an area were they did very well in the local elections and they can call upon a massive activist base in the capital)...

Half the battle in a by-election is establishing your candidate as the "local candidate" and your campaign as the "challenging" campaign, LibDem's are masters at this and it'd signal a radical improvement in the Tory by-election machine if they manage to do this and come second in Ealing...   

[Ben.]

Sorry Dave... i forgot about Sedgefield being right next to your patch. While i might not want a boost for Brown as it's your 'neck of the woods' I hope (and frankly expect!) you'll hold off any 'yellow peril'.

Both the LibDems and the Tories will focus on Ealing in all likelihood (Tories have got started early which makes a nice change) however it's a by-election and the LibDems will go in "hammer and tongs", but it's still Labour's to lose IMHO (something thats even more the case in Sedgefield). 

So an unofficial... best of luck mate!      

[Ben.]

What really gets me is the slightly "saintly" air that the LibDems seem to assume while they engaged in distortions, lies and character assassinations... i suppose in the short term its very effective politics and wins you by elections against the two major parties but in the wider scheme of things it just drags the whole process further into disrepute.     

[Ben.]

Any chance that Reg Keys runs as a Labour candidate? How about another independent run?

Not a chance... to coin a phrase, wouldn't happen in a month of sundays!

If he runs again as an indy it'll probably be with the backing of 'respect' and assorted lefties/Trots wont get anywhere close to contention though.

However looking at the local elections in Sedgefield is interesting, in a by-election there is little to suggest the potential for a LibDem surge and there no reason why the low turnout couldn't see a respectable second place for the Tories IMHO.   

[Ben.]

The Liberal Democrats are running Greg Stone in Sedgefield.

Was that the bloke who ran in Newcastle Central at the general election... or am i getting him confused with someone else? 

[Ben.]

On Ealing I agree with Peter that it could turn into a total mess... going on past form this should be a seat where the LibDem challenge Labour pretty strongly they have a so-so base at the last general election, but their local base is next to non-existent and their candidate seems fairly weak (but at the same time their by-election form and the potential for a influx of LibDem activist from across the south east will make up for this to a certain extent).

However the Tories 'seem' (and having not been down yet i can only go on what others say and how its coming across in the media) to have got off to a very good start, thanks in large part to picking a candidate with the potential for a solid "personal vote" and seem to be making a reasonable fist of being consider the "challengers" in the election (something that is key in any by-election and that the LibDems achieve without too much trouble and pretty early on). At the same time the Tories had a very good showing at the local elections in ealing and have a far large local base than the LibDems... all of which will help them.   

So it's still a seat where Labour should have a big advantage, but the Tories seem like they might put in a decent showing... not sure national polls are that instructive in a by-election (the LibDem's at the time of both Dumfernline and Bromley were in an abject position in the polls nationally).

As things stand, Labour will need to overcome the divisions within their local party while the Tories will need to sustain the momentum they seem to have and show a real improvement in their GOTV and finally the LibDems will need to stall the Tories and put their faith in their traditionally strong GOTV operation that they have employed in past by-elections to devastating effect.

Yes a mess... but perhaps the most interesting by-election in some considerable time.      
 

The Liberal Democrats are running Greg Stone in Sedgefield.

Was that the bloke who ran in Newcastle Central at the general election... or am i getting him confused with someone else? 

Yes.

From what I've heard from Dave it appears to be the norm in County Durham for the Lib Dems to parachute in an urban 'outsider' into a rural ward or seat, so it was to be expected.

Naturally, I'm very relieved that the Lib Dems have parachuted Greg Stone into Sedgefield

Labour's Phil Wilson was selected by a '"comfortable margin"

Dave

Isnt it a bit of a blunder selecting a metropolitan Geordi for a seat deep in Mackem territory, if the Hartlepool byelection is any guide i could see it being something that the other parties will delight in highlighting.

[Ben.]

Five Labour councillers in Southall have defected to the Tories. Here be their names...

Manjit Singh, Gurcharan Singh, Maninder Kaur Keith, Jarnail Singh Jandu, Jagdish Gupta.

About as ugly as it looks o/c, and I can't quite work out which party this is good news for... (the bolded name be the reason for this).

I gather that some senior Tories are/have tried to make a big deal out of this? Frankly I'm sadder about that than about the loss of Gurcharan Singh and his cronies...

In other Southall news, one Indie candidate (Golbash Singh) has endorsed the Tory candidate (he was a Tory candidate in the 2006 elections, so that's nay a big surprise), while another (Kuldeep Singh Grewal) has endorsed the Labour candidate.

Surly good news for Lit and the Tories (in terms of momentum if nothing else)... i suppose it depends upon what kind of weight (if any) the defectors bring, but I'd have thought that Gurcharan Singh at least would have the potential to bring some sort of personal vote with him?

If this is representative of broader disaffection amoungst the Sikh community in the seat with the Labour candidate then Labour are in real trouble... the response of hte local Gurdwaras (such as there is) could be key. 

That said, this could simply be a case of local "worthies" throwing their toys out of the pram over not getting the nomination... i get the sense that thats not the case though... but we'll see (thought this would be an exciting byelection ).       

[Ben.]

Another Labour Cllr defects to the Tories... this just gets better and better!

Councillor Zahida Abbas Noori (Broadway ward).

Judging by the name not a Sikh Cllr either(?), I'm really starting to wonder if Labour could be in real trouble as it looks like a significant portion of the electorate they would normally have been able to rely on might not just be withholding their support but actively backing Lit.

[Ben.]

Well it's been a 25 year wait for a by-election gain from Labour. If we don't do it this time I can wait a little longer

The IDS report and it's recomendations might help the Tories a bit on the street. A significant chunk of my own vote in May, I've been told, came form working class areas. To go in there and be honest and engage them when everyone else (Labour included) gives them a miss because they 'always vote Labour' can reap dividends. As long as the economy ticks over, a large number of ex-Tories will vote Labour. It's our job to appeal to the working poor , the dispossed and the young left behind by Labour to make up for the shortfall.

Regardless of what happens and how it happened, it's been a good campaign so far.

As much as he was never cut out to be any kind of party leader or even senior minister or shadow, IDS has a real passion for issues like social justice and has suggested some pretty innovative policy ideas... should provide a good base for the next manifesto.

The decline of the traditional "working class tory vote" seems to have coincided with the decline in the size of the "traditional" working class its self... but if the party can be seen as a credible voice on issues of poverty and social welfare, then it should go some way to beginning to rebuild a base of support beyond the restrictive electorate that the Tory party has found itself increasingly limited to.

But on the subject of Ealing, yes it sounds horribly factious, but thats doesn't detract from what could be one of the best campaigns ran by the Tories in years (he said before Ealing became yet another LibDem shock by-election victory ).

[Ben.]

Speaking of Ealing Southall, spare a thought for the forgotten Southall voter, that is, your White-British Christian

I find it immensely troubling that none of the major parties are running a candidate from Southall's largest single ethno-religious demographic

Dave

To be honest I'd have expected at least one of the three main parties to run a "white" candidate if only to differentiate themselves from the others and potentially place themselves above the squabbles within the local community.

As it is, the turnout in the Asian areas of the seat is likely to be fairly high probably a contributory factor to all three main party candidates being Asian... still remains to be seen how that impacts on the non-Asian voters in the seat, though i'd expect them to break in line with how the seat goes as a whole - if LibDem or Tories surge then that'll be reflected in the white areas of the seat, to be honest I'd have thought it was the white areas that were the traditional base for the Tories in the seat and were where there 20% of the vote came from last time around, they'll be looking to get that vote out and augment it with what ever share of the Asian vote that Lit and folks like the defected cllrs can bring over.     

[Ben.]

Well it's been a 25 year wait for a by-election gain from Labour. If we don't do it this time I can wait a little longer

The IDS report and it's recomendations might help the Tories a bit on the street. A significant chunk of my own vote in May, I've been told, came form working class areas. To go in there and be honest and engage them when everyone else (Labour included) gives them a miss because they 'always vote Labour' can reap dividends. As long as the economy ticks over, a large number of ex-Tories will vote Labour. It's our job to appeal to the working poor , the dispossed and the young left behind by Labour to make up for the shortfall.

Regardless of what happens and how it happened, it's been a good campaign so far.

But on the subject of Ealing, yes it sounds horribly factious, but thats doesn't detract from what could be one of the best campaigns ran by the Tories in years (he said before Ealing became yet another LibDem shock by-election victory ).

It doesn't strike me as being a good Tory campaign at all. (Cheadle was a good Tory campaign, but they still lost.) The Tories have benefited from idiotic local politicians who have nothing better to do with their time than snipe at each other.

Tony Lit's father did well in 2001 because he's a wealthy owner of a radio station that ran pseudo-advertisements (not legally advertisements, but essentially the same thing) for him throughout the campaign. He basically bought all of his votes. Lit is nothing special.

hmmm... strong candidate selected early, head start on the poster war, established themselves as the "challengers", taken advantage of the alienation of elements of the local labour party and (more importantly the wider Sikh community) in no small part thanks to having a very strong local campaign... sorry but frankly if the tory campaign wasn't strong they wouldn't be in the position their now in (challenging Labour hard in what should be a safe seat).   

Agree on Cheadle though, was a good Tory campaign (very negative... but a very strong campiagn never the less) but the disapearance of the Labour vote and a significant 'sympathy vote' is what did for the Tories in that seat IMHO.

[Ben.]

Would expect the Greens to get squeezed, yes their the only mainstream party to have a white candidate but i dont see that boosting them to much, the Greens have no form in by-elections despite a comparatively strong local base in Ealing from the last election... I'd expect 3/4 of what vote they have (and bothers to go to the polls) to split between Labour and the LibDems (mostly to the LibDems I'd expect), but frankly I'm not sure it'll have a significant impact.   

[Ben.]

More defections likely as Labour by-election campaign fractures

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2056549.ece

Dave

 

Part of me wonders if there will be any more defections... one thing the Labour Party know how to do (and its no bad thing!) is hold the proverbial fort, backs are against the wall in Ealing it seems, "squeaky bum time" now... it'd be a big blow if they cant hold their cllrs together at this point in an important campaign.

That said if i was sitting on another trench of potential defectors... I'd try and pull if off closer to polling day and time it some distance from the last trench, to maximize any potential discomfort for my opponents... then again its very rarely the case that a campiagn has that kind of control over something like a defection (unless their Labour and its Quentin Davies of course).             

[Ben.]

And the LibDems say "thankyou very much"...

...as it is though I'm really not sure it'll have a devastating impact, it's a photo of the Tory candidate with Blair and at this stage in the election i'm not sure most voters will see it as more than that, talk of donations is less likely to permeate to the broader electorate - unless Labour and the LibDems are very effective and people actually read the literature.     

[Ben.]

Right, having only just got back today after a week down in Ealing (was awake and working my arse off for twenty four hours straight, from dawn raid leafleting till the declaration this morning), I'll offer my initial reaction...

I got down to Ealing the day after "the photo" came out, the immediate impact of which IMHO was to wobble what had been a very solid Tory vote in Ealing, at the same time it had very little impact on what ever vote Lit secured in Southall, however I have no doubt that the low turnout in bits of Ealing was directly as a result of disaffected Ealing Tories responding to the photo and the subsequent Labour/LibDem attacks and sitting on their hands.

The Tory campaign was a massive improvement on what had gone before with the Tories in by-elections, in terms of selection of candidates (Lit for all his faults was a strong candidate IMHO), creation and distribution of literature and media profile... where the campaign fell apart was in the way in which it attempted some pretty basic elements of campaigning, canvassing data (even in Ealing) was poor, there was NO effective knocking up operation, no poster campaign by the Conservative campiagn, while much of the literature was good it's theme and form could have been more consistent (something always true of LibDem literature).

So in short, some areas of real improvement but at the same time the Tory campaign still fell far short of both Labour and LibDem in terms of field operations at least... one thing was very interesting, that while Labour ran a campaign that was often very negative (as did the LibDems) the Tories remained positive for the entire campaign... was that wise? I dont really know but remember in Chedale a remorselessly negative Tory campaign did rather well in the circumstances.               

[Ben.]

If anything, the Conservatives just ran a very unconvincing candidate in Tony Lit. Cameron would be wise not to run candidates as David Cameron's Conservatives in future.

The fact of the matter is the Conservatives should have done a lot better in this by-election when you consider they were only 5 or 6 per cent behind Labour in last years locals

Dave

Agree... as i say though Lit (bar "that photo") was perhaps the best candidate that could have been hoped for, the performance was as much down to the Tory campaign having zero grasp of field operations (voter ID, GOTV, poster campaign, coherent leafleting strategy etc...)... short comings that really came into sharp relief in the last week, when such things can be so important! 

Personally I'd have had the name on the ballot as Conservative Candidate: Stop the Tram.... at least that would have reflected what was (in theory) the campaign's theme and whats more a theme that was key to Tory local success last year.