2008-NC-Senate-poll: Dole favored

[Ben.]

Congressman Brad Miller is going to decide by July whether he will oppose Dole.  He would be a strong candidate, but I'm not sure whether he could beat her - the dynamics of the year and race would have to be perfect for him to.  2008 would need to be a second 2006, which at this point it appears to be. 

Miller is too liberal to win statewide against Dole.

A candidate with Brown's voting record (which is what Miller has) cant win state wide in NC against Dole... Tester was a decent fit for MT while Brown benefited from a national tilt to the Dems, the implosion of the OH GOP and the fact that the OH is decidedly less conservative state than NC (especially when it comes to social issues).

[Ben.]

You've got a point that (along with much of the coastal upper south) NC has shown some movment to the Dems... but you have to make allowance for the fact that the Dems performance in '04 was distorted from the existing trend because of the presence of Edwards on the ticket and the fact they really didnt totally give up on the state for a long while.

But as i say some Dem progress in the state, your right, nothing like on the scale of whats going on in VA though as there's nothing like the liberal, affluent DC-suburbs that are swamping northern VA. 

[Ben.]

If you compare 2000 to 2004 for George W. Bush, North Carolina is one of only 3 states where his share of the vote went down (others being Vermont and South Dakota). Slight, but I wouldn't've bet on NC being the third worst state when compared to 2000. I don't believe Edwards had much to deal with it either. Non-Democrats in this state don't care for him.

Maybe, but the DNC spent far more in NC than in any similar state, right up until the final weeks of the campaign in the hope that Edwards' presence on the ticket would make the state competitive (something early polls suggested was possible)... I'm not denying the state has seen a slow trend towards the Dems in some areas, but the '04 results is distorted as a result of the Dem's targeting of the state.