Gore wouldn't have gone to Iraq. Change the scenario.
He would have, the attitudes of Lieberman, Gore and Richard Holbrooke (his likely sectary of state) where firmly rooted in a belief in the supremacy of America power and the notion that this could have a positive influence on the world. And faced with the evidence (largely faulty and some plain Iranian lies) any administration would have moved against Iraq.
After 9/11 Gore would have attacked Afghanistan (hell even Howard Dean would have done that!), the preamble to war with Iraq would have been different, Gore and Holbrooke would have been keen to prevent too big a rift with the Europeans and while that still happens the Iraq war does not happen until the Autumn of 2003 with UN authorisation. In the UK Tony Blair offers his full support, in France and Germany there is hostility towards the US enterprise but not to such an extent that they have blocked the UN resolution sanctioning war, while at the same time Russia reaches an agreement with the USA not to veto the resolution (in secret some “quid pro quo” is agreed to) with the US having assembled a massive military force in Kuwait and also a smaller force in Turkey the war goes ahead and sees the destruction of Sadam’s regime within five weeks.
As the US occupies Iraq terrorist attacks mount and unrest within the Iraqi population grows, in the north of the country the Kurds amass more and more power while in the rest of the country the Suni Religious leaders also begin to amass power. By Easter 2004 a Provisional government has been established under US auspices and things are much as they have been in reality.
Campaigning on a Peace ticket Denis Kucinich challenges Gore for the Democratic nomination gaining 9% in Iowa and 12% in New Hampshire and being thoroughly crushed else where despite persisting in his challenge to Gore right up until the convention.
With the Senate control by the Democrats by a slim margin, the House under Republican Control and Gore approval ratings hovering around 49-51% the race for the GOP nomination is hotly contested. Orrin Hatch surprises many by launching a campaign for the nomination followed by Tom Ridge, George Pataki, Alan Keyes, Olympia Snowe, Rick Santorum and Lamar Alexander.
Before New Hampshire Hatch drops out for lack of funds, After the NH primary (in which Alexander wins a almost dead heat with Ridge and Santorum) Pataki and Snowe (who came in a strong fourth) drop out, moving on to SC, Ridge sees a marked drop in support while Alexander suffers a narrow loss to Santorum from their on the contest goes north to Michigan and a number of New England States where Alexander wins a series of victories, despite his conservatism Santorum is unable to brand Alexander as a “Liberal” or “RINO” and fails to defeat him in a series of Southern Primaries however the Pennsylvania Senator does wins solid victories in Texas and a score of western states, however he is unable to surmount Alexander’s lead and drops out.
Alexander selects Colorado Governor Bill Owens as his running mate and in November despite Gore’s initially strong position the Alexander/ Owens ticket comes close to beating Gore/Lieberman and helps to push the GOP to throw the Senate back to a tie with GOP wins in SC, FL, CO and OK more than offsetting the one Dem gain of IL. While the Anti War Campaign run by Leftwing consumer advocate Ralph Nader draws votes from many anti-war liberals and contributes to Republican victories in MN, IA and ME.
Al Gore/ Jo Lieberman (Democratic): EV; 288 PV; 49%
Lamar Alexander/ Bill Owens (Republican): EV; 250 PV; 47%
Ralph Nader/ Peter Camejo (Green): EV; 0 PV; 4%
