Dunfermline and West Fife by-election, 9 February

[Ben.]

Hmmm… word is that the LibDems are feeling optimistic, and it might be more than simply activist hubris.

I’d still be amazed if Labour lost the seat but I think it could be close, I’d also expect a fairly large portion of what Tory vote there is in the seat to come to the polls on Thursday… though I don’t know if it’d be sufficient to get the Tories out from fourth place, though third place might not be out of the question, though the better the LibDems do the less likely that is.                 

[Ben.]

But any real or potential Catholic SNP voters may switch over the latest furore on the front page of Monday's Daily Record

?... Do tell.

[Ben.]

The buzz is that its getting very close in Dunfermline right now, I still expect Labour to win but i think the LibDems will do better than expected... Gordon is not going to be happy

[Ben.]

Source?

Some folks from the Scottish Office, I don’t speak to them regularly but they say its tougher than many expected. Labour will still win but it’ll probably be by less than 2,000…. I’ll call it at 1-1,500 Labour Majority, LibDem do better than expected, SNP third and a very modest improvement for the Tories.       

Cheltenham?

I always thought that Cheltenham and Bath would be two of the nicest seats to represent in the country… though to be fair Bath is just a Jane Austen/ Roman theme park, but it’s still nice.   

[Ben.]

Labour: 1,670.

[Ben.]

Hmm... starting to feel a bit depressed now...

Told you that it would be close but dont worry Labour'll pull through... remember they reported Chedale as very close at the count only for the Tories to lose by 4,000 votes!

[Ben.]

Bloody hell...

Indeed... Gordon isn’t going to be pleased at all, then again Labour’s campaigning ability is vastly overrated especially in by-election campaigns against the LibDems.

[Ben.]

Is it all over now?

BBC - Declaration next 10 minutes!

[Ben.]

Is it all over now?

It's just heating up! Decleration in about 10 minutes - Labour may have got a small but significant boost from final ballots.

Betting markets have swung back to labour a tad, pictures of the count on the BBC don’t seem to show much excitement from anyone

[Ben.]

LibDems on pb.com seem more sullen than before.

[Ben.]

LibDems win... ah well

[Ben.]

A true tribute to the sensational campaigning form of the LibDems when it comes to by-elections, a sorry indictment for Labour’s much vaunted election machine and a positive slap in the face for dear Gordon… amazing result really amazing…


All that taken into account though, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Labour retake the seat at the next election… but I’m still really surprised.

[Ben.]

Seems as though the only party that did well was the LibDems... both the Labour and Tory votes pretty much halved from 2005. McAllion seems to have lost his deposit.

===
Labour need to work out just what the hell we're doing wrong with Westminster by-elections... our General Election machine is pretty impressive, so why the big drop in quality? Something to ponder...

Have you seen the quite frankly pathetic quality of most Labour campaign literature? Both the LibDems and the Tories are streets ahead of Labour on that score alone… though I would have thought that there would have been a solid local GOTV machine in a seat like Dunfermline.   

[Ben.]

Dunfermiline West will be regained. Governments have lost seats to the Lib Dems in every parliament. 1997-2001 was afluke.

Like Bermonsey?

To be honest the local Labour Party needs to both be motivated and eager for a long period of activity (which in a seat like Dunfermline it probably hasn’t been for a very long time) and at the same time Rennie needs to prove to be a disaster as a local MP (a-la Gill in Leicester South) and while it’s still very early his victory speech and general demeanour seem to suggest that he’s a perfectly able and capable figure.

I doubt that Rennie will be a disaster or that Labour will be able to put pressure on the seat for the next three years to undermine him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s able to entrench himself like Hughes in Bermondsey or Teather in Brent East… then again with a Scottish leader in a general election maybe Labour will have a better chance, though it must be said Brown pretty much was the Labour candidate in this by-election and look what happened! If Brown as the face of the Labour Party in a contest effectively run by his allies can’t win a by-election in a formerly safe Labour seat in his own backyard you can kiss-good-bye to a significant number of Labour’s marginals at the next election.