2007 Gubernatorial Races

[Ben.]

Is it more or less fair to say that both Governors Kathleen Blanco (D-LA) and Ernie Fletcher (R-KY) are likely to be defeated in 2007 as Governor Haley Barbour (R-MS) is re-elected?

I’d probably agree, any incumbent Democrat would be at risk in Louisiana after the population shifts that where caused by Katrina and having received much of the blame for the ineffective response to the disaster Blanco’s position is impossible  though it should be noted that, in no small part thanks to “Ray - sh*t for brains - Nagin” endorsement of Bobby Jindal Blanco was in 03 not too dependent on the black vote in New Orleans, but that’s really besides the point, she’ll lose and she’ll probably lose to Bobby Jindal.

The best thing for the Democrats might be to oust Blanco and run Lt.Governor Mitch Landrieu instead he’s a solid campaigner, a Landrieu and not a discredited political force like Blanco – another possibility could be tempting John Breaux back to public life, he has mulled over runs for governor in the past and he might be convinced to run, what more if he ran he’d win.

In all likelihood though Blanco gets nominated and gets soundly beaten by Bobby Jindal.


In Kentucky it’s a totally discredited Republican incumbent who’ll probably be running and almost certainly be going down to defeat.

Who is Montgardio? I don't know what to make of his close run at Bunning, should be one disappointed at his failing to defeat a senile, completely inept opponent or marvel at how close he came to beating a respected incumbent riding on Bush's coattails in a nowadays heavily Republican state?

The Democrat’s in the state don’t have a bad bench, Ben Chandler ran for Governor in 03 and lost, then ran and was elected to congress and has been state AG and Auditor – perhaps the best qualified and most likely candidate, though he has become something of a leading figure within the congressional blue dog collalition and might not want to give up his prospects there.     

After Chandler there are two other potentially very strong candidates the former Lt.Governor Steve Henry and the current State Treasure Jonathan Miller both of whom would win fairly easily and as has been said Miller seems pretty keen to run anyway.

Dan Mongiardo is a guy who initially I wrote off, I though that he must have been a liberal gadfly who got lucky and ran a self-destructing candidate close by default – that’s simply not true, Mongiardo did very well in the race and was a canny campaigner throughout the race, where he to run for Governor I think he might well win But he would be a risk and he remains largely untested and when the Dems in KY can boast a deep bench of experienced candidates who would win I think it would be a risk best not taken – However I think that Mongiardo has a great future in the Democratic Party if he wants to pursues it, a run for another state wide office Sectary of State or State Treasurer would set him up well for a future run for higher office but 07 simply won’t and shouldn’t be his year.


Finally Mississippi, prior to Katrina Barbour seemed to in a tight fix but now after a huge surge in his popularity after his handling of the hurricane he seems to be doing ok… unfortunately while Katrina has permanently or at least semi-permanently shifted the political geography of neighbouring Louisiana, the impact on Mississippi’s political landscape has been more transitory and in 2007 Barbour’s conduct in the aftermath of the storm may seem like having been a long time ago.

I’d say that Barbour should probably win re-election but another factor that has to be taken into account is what happens should Trent Lott step down and Mike Moore win the Senate seat? This could embolden other strong Democratic figures in the state to run against him both AG Jim Hood (a protégé of Moore’s) and former Governor Ray Mabus are both thought to be tempted to run if the race seems competive and a potentially intriguing possibility could be that even if Hood and Mabus pass on the race State Supreme Court Justice James Graves might also run and while I know both Hood and Mabus, Graves apart from being well qualified, a Democrat, Black and interested in a run for Governor is pretty much a blank to me (Harry…help?)

So Mississippi as things stands now will probably be held by Barbour should he run, but that could change and it’s really to early to tell in contrast I don’t see how the incumbents in either KY or LA survive barring an unforeseen intervention (i.e. Breaux or Landrieu running in LA)         

[Ben.]

There is talk that Senator John Breaux would jump into the governor's race in 2007, but I've heard nothing definite on that, and probably won't for a while.  He would be the toughest to beat, in fact I doubt he could be beaten.  Mitch Landrieu would be stronger than Blanco, but he's yet to have a competitive race statewide (his Lt. Governor race was practically assured. He had several Republican opponents that were all underfunded and not a threat to him).

I think in all likelihood, Vitter will jump into the governor's race, and Jindal will run or be appointed to the Senate.  I have no doubt Bobby will want the job, but he deferred to Vitter in the 2004 Senate race, and anyway, he's younger and has the time to wait.

Agreed if he ran Breaux would win, but I think it’s a long shot – then again many folks who quit public office often get the itch to return to it and Breaux has considered gubernatorial runs in the past, I think though for him to run Blanco would have to be convinced to step down and I have no idea even when its obvious she’ll lose weather she will want to do that.

Mitch Landrieu would be a better candidate than Blanco but so soon after Katrina I think he probably still lose to a credible GOP candidate and most likely will try to hang on to his post as Lt.Gov for a while yet, maybe run for Gov or Senate in the future.

I honestly don’t know about the dynamic between Vitter and Jindal, as a local you’re bound to have a better understanding than me, Vitter I find unimpressive but a yellow dog could beat Blanco in ’07! And the effects of Katrina only serve to make Vitter more secure at least for the medium term and probably assure the GOP of a gubernatorial win in ’07 unless, as we’ve discussed, Breaux steps in to save the day for the Democrats – however I don’t know that so soon after being elected to the Senate Vitter would be able to get away with running for Governor, so I think Jindal will probably be back and will beat Blanco.

The Dem should work hard to avoid open primary challenges to their existing office holders as well as doing their darndest to save Landrieu in ’08 that is if she’s not on the ticket. Interestingly while the near destruction of her New Orleans power base should mean Landrieu’s toast post Katrina polls show here approvals are pretty healthy so long as the Democrat’s national ticket doesn’t bomb in the South (a-la Kerry/Edwards) she could just survive, my advice to her would be to work the interior very hard and stay viable and she seems to be doing just that.                         

[Ben.]

Breaux can run whether Blanco backs out or not.  We have an open primary where all candidates can run together, and the top two vote getters compete in a runoff.  So Breaux can simply outpoll Blanco and make it to the runoff.  His age may be a factor though, he's now in his sixties, and has been in public office for so long he may want to keep earning money in the private sector.

But i wonder if it would be seemly for Breaux to contest an election against an incumbent governor... though I’d be happy for him to try, I also wonder if there would be a run off at all, I can see Breaux easily getting 50%+ in a gubernatorial run the Democratic base would be sewn up and Breaux would have tremendous pull amongst independents and even the naturally republican “good o’ld boys” types who dominate the rural interior of the state.

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Again I agree but I think Mary has an interest in running for governor some day and could even be on the Democratic Presidential ticket in 2008… either way I agree that you just couldn’t have two Landrieus as the state’s senators.

If anything I think Mitch will keep busy with domestic state politics – if he’s competitive post Katrina (which I think he should be) – and leave Mary to stick it out in the senate – again if she can remain competitive post Katrina.       

[Ben.]

Mary ran for governor in 1995, but got edged out of the runoff by Democrat Cleo Fields.  She's still pretty young and I'm sure she's still considered another run from time to time.  The problem for her is getting a good base to run again, and she's had very tough election fights in 1996 and 2002, and may not survive in 2008.

True, I say that as Landrieus both her and Mitch relied hugely on their connections with the democratic machine in New Orleans which is now effectively defunct there will still be a significant black, democratic inclined vote there but it won’t be as large or as organised as before.

The good news for Landrieu is that during the aftermath of Katrina she seemed to build up a lot of good will amongst a broader range voters than she had before and that’s been reflected in her solid approval numbers post Katrina, and if she can entrench and expand on that good will may well be the key to weather she is able to survive in 2008 or not.