Honestly, Democrats are in a fantasy land about Ohio, just like Florida four years ago. Remember how Terry McAuliffe poured all that money into Florida, and Republicans held the Governoship in 2002 and gained a Senate seat in 2004?
Have fun running Paul Hackett for Senate, or whoever you've convinced to make that suicide run, and good luck beating a black Republican in a state where Democrat are totally reliant on the heavily black Cuyahoga County.
Ford
I’m afraid its inaccurate to argue that Ohio in 06 will be a repeat of Florida in 02, indeed beyond the two states having been the proverbial ground zero for presidential elections two years before there really is no comparison IMHO.
In Florida, the Democrats had a divisive primary for the Governorship, faced a popular and effective incumbent in the shape of Jeb Bush and a well organised state GOP campaign, when it comes to the gubernatorial contest in Ohio next fall the opposite is the case, the incumbent Governor and his administration are mired in scandal which has reflected broadly on the state GOP as a whole.
So in short Ohio isn’t anything like Florida was during the last midterms.
The eventual GOP nominee will find it tough to disassociate themselves from the shadow of scandal cast by Taft’s outgoing administration, what’s more in addition to this they will likely face a tough and competitive Democratic nominee in the shape of Ted Strickland.
Such a race is a million miles away from the contest which Jeb Bush, a popular incumbent, faced four years ago in Florida against a less strong Democratic nominee. The race will be competitive, but Strickland starts it with some important advantages, while in contrast the GOP nominee will face some big obstacles.
The senate race will be far tougher for the Democrats, despite an unpopular incumbent and a weakened GOP both locally and nationally, DeWine still enjoys the advantages of incumbency as well as a huge war chest, however DeWine will face a well funded primary challenge, and at the same time while the strongest potential Democrat Tim Ryan has passed on the race Paul Hackett, the now likely nominee, is not a weak candidate and will make the race competitive, what is more Hackett will also be facing an unpopular incumbent… DeWine still has the advantage in this race, however its not much of an advantage, and as with the gubernatorial contest, it would be foolish to assume that he is, despite all the evidence to the contrary, somehow ‘safe’.
IMHO, the end result is that the gubernatorial race leans to Strickland and the Dems, while the Senate race leans towards DeWine and the GOP… yet out of the two I’d say that Strickland has a far clearer advantage than DeWine.
