McCain: He'll get nowhere because he won't run. He'll be 72. He has skin cancer. Some pics of him just look horrible. His wife has suffered a stroke (and she's only about 50), and he'll be very sickly and in no condition to run a campaign. Neither will she. He said after 2000 it's very unlikely he'll ever run again, and there's no way I can see him doing so in 2008.
Disagree, McCain has about a quarter of the Republican Party who hate him and would be dead set against him, that said he’s about the only political who could more that make up for that in support from Independents and Democrats in a general election. He doesn’t look like he’s in his late sixties and where he to be elected I think there would be no guarantee he’d seek a second term. In short if he runs and can get the Republican nomination, and with the 2008 contest looking wide open he could well, then it would take a truly exceptional Democrat to beat him and a sacrificial lamb like Dodd, Richardson or even Kerry (that said Kerry would never run against McCain) would probably get the nod.
I’d say that Dean will either run or back someone like Feingold as the Liberal “standard bearer” either way he (or Feingold would not get the nomination) but he could have an important impact on the primaries. It would be interesting if he ran for the senate, I think Jeffords might well not run for re-election and while I disagree strongly with Dean on many issues it would be interesting to see how he behaved if he reached the Senate.
He could well beat Hillary or even replace Pataki, but I’d agree that Giuliani just would not get the GOP nomination, while his stance on crime and terrorism would normally make him a lock, with his position on abortion and guns he’d get killed in the GOP primaries.
Disagree, Pataki could get the nomination, he has been very careful not to get drawn on issues such as abortion and gun ownership and that places him in a much better position than Rudy. Added to this Pataki has a very good record as Governor and has put in a lot of effort over the last few years in preparing the way for a presidential run and ingratiating himself with the Republican leadership, however despite all of this he would proably lose out to someone who was more ostensibly socially conservative.
Disagree (again), Hagel has been less circumspect than McCain, sure he’s a moderate but he much more careful about which issues to disagree with the party on, he’s a veteran and a foreign policy hawk and while he’s not an ultra-conservative on social issues he remains pretty close to the GOP mainstream on social issues. So he’s got a better shot than Pataki I would argue.
I’d agree, Edwards would be uncompetitive next time around, as I’ve been saying a fair bit over the last few days if he stil wants to be president he’s got to take the long term view and do what FDR did… go back to NC, network for four years, shake off the “liberal tag”, associate himself with the Blue Dog Coalition and get ready for a run for Governor in 2008 and then look to make a presidential run in 2012 or 2016.
I don’t know what Hillary’s going to do, I hope she doesn’t run but she may and if she does she’ll lose because the right and centre of the party will see her as “too leftwing” and the left will be looking for an “antiestablishment Dean II” so she wouldn’t win even if she ran, for the simple reason most people within the party wouldn’t see her as
