future electoral map?

[Ben.]

How about Governor John Edwards vs. Senator Matt Blunt 2016?

     

Candidates:

I’m assuming Edwards takes my advice from another thread and gives up the idea that a one term senator can do nothing for four years and still be electable despite having 1. Done nothing for four years 2. No foreign policy experience and 3. Being on a losing presidential ticket as the running mate… Edwards in my view needs to do what FDR did, go back to his home state network like hell and run for governor with Easley likely to not run again in 2008 (he’s hinted that this would be his last term, or his term limited?) Edwards would have a big opening but networking and re-establishing his political credibility in a conservative state have got to be his main priorities over the next few years. If he can then win a second term in 2012 he would be set.

Blunt is more straight forward. Assuming he does well as MO governor and then in say 2012 runs for the Senate he would also be a very strong candidate for the presidency and yet would still be very young and yet not lacking in experience.   


Demographic changes:

The Midwest gets more conservative with states like MN, WI and IA becoming more republican both of a more libertarian shade than the southern states, in IL Chicago retains its ability to outvote the rest of the state but growing republican strength in the “burbs” mean the states is trending to the right and becoming ever more of a tossup. A growth in the Hispanic population in NM, AZ, NV, TX and CO coupled with increasing movement of people from the North West and north east to the area makes the area more and more competitive as it trends to the left. On the Atlantic coast migration from the North East to the South East continues with VA becoming more left leaning with the growth of the northern democratic leaning counties while in North Carolina and Georgia despite increasing emigration to Atlanta, Raleigh, Macon, Athens, Greensboro etc… the states remain fairly safe republican (think of CO or TN in 2004)… but in this contest NC’s Governor is easily able to drag his home state into his own column.   

Then Again all this is just a guess… so who knows.

[Ben.]

Next election might look something like this:



This makes it a virtual tie, 223-221 to the GOP. I think it's gonna be along those lines, at least.

If Bayh gets nominated and faces say Owens...

[Ben.]

Next election might look something like this:



This makes it a virtual tie, 223-221 to the GOP. I think it's gonna be along those lines, at least.

If Bayh gets nominated and faces say Owens...

Bayh will never get the nomination.  Remember, your party punishes non-hardliners.  It's going to be either Hillary or someother Left-winger.

Don’t be so sure, lots of Liberals are desperate and Bayh’s positions can be “spun” for the primaries the same way Clinton’s where, it getting to the stage where positions wins and experience wise Bayh is hands down the best candidate save perhaps Blanche Lincoln, but I expect she won’t want the nomination.