Predctions on Election 2004

[Ben.]

Sorry But I’m going to bite…and I’ll call every state rather than give some as tossups…  


Alabama: Bush  
Alaska: Bush  
Arizona: Bush  
Arkansas: Bush  
California: Kerry  
Colorado: Bush  
Connecticut: Kerry
Delaware: Kerry  
District of Columbia: Kerry  
Florida: Bush
Georgia: Bush  
Hawaii: Kerry  
Idaho: Bush  
Illinois: Kerry  
Indiana: Bush  
Iowa: Bush  
Kansas: Bush  
Kentucky: Bush  
Louisiana: Bush
Maine: Kerry  
Maryland: Kerry  
Massachusetts: Kerry  
Michigan: Kerry  
Minnesota: Kerry  
Mississippi: Bush  
Missouri: Bush  
Montana: Bush  
Nebraska: Bush  
Nevada: Bush  
New Hampshire: Kerry  
New Jersey: Kerry  
New Mexico: Bush  
New York: Kerry  
North Carolina: Bush  
North Dakota: Bush  
Ohio: Kerry  
Oklahoma: Bush  
Oregon: Kerry  
Pennsylvania: Kerry  
Rhode Island: Kerry  
South Carolina: Bush
South Dakota: Bush
Tennessee: Bush
Texas: Bush
Utah: Bush
Vermont: Kerry  
Virginia: Bush
Washington: Kerry
West Virginia: Bush  
Wisconsin: Kerry
Wyoming: Bush

Note: States that are tossups in my view are…

New Hampshire (leads to Kerry)
Ohio (true tossup)
Florida (leans to Bush, but Nelson or Graham could change that)
Iowa (leans to Bush)
New Mexico (leans to Bush)
Nevada (leans to Bush)
Wisconsin (leans to Kerry)
Missouri (leans to Bush)      

[Ben.]

Sorry Gustaf forget to post the total…Doh!... here your are…

Kerry/?(Dem) 272 Electoral votes.
Bush/ Cheney (Rep) 266 Electoral votes.  

[Ben.]

Kerry/?(Dem) 272 Electoral votes.
Bush/ Cheney (Rep) 266 Electoral votes.  

I made exactly the same prediction like yours:



Bush: 266
Kerry: 272

possible tossup:
NV, MO, WV, FL, IA, NM (leaning Bush)
OH, OR, NH, WI (leaning Kerry)

Wow man!... great minds...

But you know I see Bush being able to win NM with his blatant wooing of the Hispanic vote while in Iowa he came really, really  close last time and i recon that with some of his conservative populism and despite Nader not being as big a spoiler as in 2000 he should without Buchanan be able to win the state... In Mn I doubt he'll win in 2000 the strong Green showing made the state much closer than it would have been and in 2002 strong liberal third party candidates also cost the Democrats the election... I see Bush social conservatism helping him to hold on to WV but with the steel tariffs issue it will be close and Kerry could still win it though Bush has the edge... Ohio in more diverse than WV and with a good moderate VP and with the steel tariff issue Kerry should get pushed over the top in the end in that state, in New Hampshire Kerry should win party because of geography and party because of the evidence of the massive independent turnout in the Dem primaries and the polling I’ve see all seems to suggest a firm Kerry advantage... sorry to be so brief... gota go...  

[Ben.]

If I was a Buchanan voter I'd sure vote for Bush over Kerry... I wouldn’t expect them to stay home... many of them would have been put off by Bush's "compassionate conservatism" and will now be far more comfortable with Bush than they where before... so I'd say a tiny boost from these voters for Bush (basically the same as Kerry gets from penitent Nader voters from 2000)... but i still think that both NM and IA are leaning towards Bush as of now and by the same token Ohio and New Hampshire are leaning to Kerry (Ohio is going to be very very close though)...

[Ben.]

 Wait a minute